The Impact Of International Oil Price On The Price Of Agricultural Products In China

The stability of agricultural product price is closely related to the life of the residents.With the continuous expansion of China's population scale,the consumption of agricultural products in China has increased year by year,so more and more scholars have started to pay attention to the issue of price stability of agricultural products.Since the reform and development,with the rapid development of China's economy,the prices of agricultural products fluctuate constantly.Especially after China's accession to the WTO since 2001,our country market economy opening to the outside world has made breakthrough progress.The fluctuation of the price of agricultural products is not influenced by various factors in China,and the occurrence of external shocks such as international oil price also causes the price fluctuation of agricultural products to be increased.The volatility of agricultural prices not only affects the consumer price level,but also a potential threat to social stability,which affects the stability and development of our macro economy.With the increasing dependence of petroleum in China,the international oil price has more and more influence on the price of agricultural products in China.The main way that international oil price affects the price of agricultural products in China is production cost,fuel ethanol,inflation rate,RMB exchange rate,etc.Existing research at home and abroad are mostly through theoretical analysis and empirical research,discusses whether the international oil price has an impact on the price of agricultural products in China.It does not involve quantitative analysis of the impact of international oil prices on the price of agricultural products in China from several different paths.Quantifiable measures international oil prices affect our agricultural prices by several different paths.The first is through theoretical analysis,discussing the volatility of international oil prices and the conduction pathway of our agricultural prices.Then,based on the theoretical analysis,this paper conducts an empirical analysis to study the major factors affecting the prices of agricultural products,including international petroleum price,chemical fertilizer price,pesticide and pesticide price,fuel ethanol price,inflation rate and RMB exchange rate.Then through path analysis model,quantitative measure different paths roughly indirect effects and influence degree directly.Finally,it forms relevant policy Suggestions for effective control of the price of international oil fluctuations,maintaining the price stability of our agricultural products,and ensuring the stability of our residents' lives.