Analysis And Forecast Of Air Quality In Jinan

Air quality is closely related to the health of residents.In recent years,the deterioration of ai r quality and frequent fog caused the governmentand the public pay constant attention to airquality.We master the state of air quality status and the law of change.It is important to analyze and predict the trend of air quality.We established the optimal time series model based on the trend of air quality,and predicted the change of air quality in the future.Finally,we present the change of air quality to the public in a simple and straightforward way.This paper mainly analyzes the air quality of Jinan city from July 2014 to March 2018 and p redicts the air quality for a period of time.The article mainly contains five chapters:The first chapter is the introduction.We introduce the research background and significance of air quality.The current domestic air quality research resultsare summarized.Then we analyze the current situation of air quality.The second chapteristhe theoretical basis of multivariate statistics andtime series.We introduce the concrete steps of establishing themultiple regression model and the modeling method of time series.We introduced the ARIMA model in detail.The third chapter is the statistical analysis of air quality in Jinan city,we use R?SPSS and Eviews6.0software to analyze the air quality of Jinan city.We use the relationship between pollutant ? air quality index and the multivariate statistical method to establish the multivariate nonlinear regression equation.Finally,we analyze the main pollutants that affect the air quality.Then we set up a time model for the AQI of Jinan air quality index and obtained the stationarity test afterthe data pretreatment.The ARIMA model was established by using AIC criterion.And we do adaptive testing and stationarity test of the model.Finally,we use the established model to predict the data of March 2018.We compare the predicted value with the actual value,and the error is in the acceptable range indicates that our model fitting effect is good.The fourth chapter is the establishment of intelligent environmental protection molecular system.We visualized the air quality forecast in Jinan.The fifth chapter is summary and prospect.We conclude that the air quality of Jinan city isimproving continuously.At the same time,the shortcomings ofthe paper are analyzed,which need to be improvedin the future.