Systematic Analysis And Spatiotemporal Simulation Of Atmospheric Coal-related Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Emission In China

As the main energy status of coal in China will not change for a long period of time,the resulting growth trend of atmospheric coal-related polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs)emission may not be alleviated within a short time.In addition,the effective implementation of PAHs pollution control policies can be hindered due to the varied status of coal-related PAHs emission in different regions.Driven by the above background,this paper studied the dynamic variations and control policies of coal-related PAHs emission in China from both national and regional levels.Based on the systematic analysis of relevant economic,energy and environmental factors that could affected coal-related PAHs emission,the comprehensive assessment models were successfully developed for the 31 provinces in China using system dynamics(SD)method.In these models,six scenarios(maintaining scenario,industry structure adjustment scenario,energy consumption structure adjustment scenario,industrial source control scenario,household source control scenario and integrated regulation scenario)were quantitatively designed to investigate the single and integrated influences of four emission reduction policies for different provinces and the whole China.The spatiotemporal variation processes of coal-related PAHs emission in China in the future ten years were analyzed with the combination of geographic information system(GIS)technology.Then provinces with similar policy effects were identified by the comprehensive evaluation for the emission reduction effects of the four policies.The main study results were as follows:(1)Among many economic,energy and environmental factors that could affected coalrelated PAHs emission,four factors including coal share of energy consumption,emission reduction rate of industrial PAHs,anthracite share of household coal combustion and tertiary industry share of GDP had the greatest significance on the 31 provinces in China.(2)At the national level,the relative growth rate of coal-related PAHs emission was 17.1% under maintaining scenario.The national relative growth rate under energy consumption structure adjustment scenario was reduced 41.0% compared with those under maintaining scenario,resulting in the maximum emission reduction effects among the four single policy scenarios.At the regional level,not all provinces could succeed in emission reduction when respectively implementing the four policies whose effects varied from province to province,so comprehensive targeted policies should be considered for different provinces.(3)The different availabilities of the four policies for the 31 provinces resulted from their development discrepancies in industry structure,energy structure and source emission characteristics.To simultaneously realize the maximum national emission reduction effect and the integrated emission reduction for different provinces,energy consumption structure adjustment should be taken as the guiding policy for all provinces.Then industrial source control,household source control and industry structure adjustment should be considered as the complementary policies for the corresponding provinces based on their availabilities of these policies.The above systematically comprehensive analyses of coal-related PAHs emission for 31 provinces in China realize the successful application of SD method in the study of unconventional atmospheric pollutants,and provide the scientific references and quantitative recommendations for local governments to effectively direct the coordinated development of regional economy,energy structure and environmental quality.