Navigation Risk Assessment Of Nizhoutou Channel Rebuilding Project In Guangdong

The navigation safety of waterway is of great significance for the protection of human life,property safety and water clean.In recent years,with the quantity of cargo throughput,the number and tonnage of ships increased severely,the traffic pressure of Nizhoutou channel in Humen port has rose with each passing day.According to the Humen port planning,the contradictions between Nizhoutou channel and berth panning is bad for long-term construction and development of the port and navigation safety of channel.To relieve the pressure of navigation and satisfy the demand of shipping industry,the management has carried out upgrading and reconstruction project of Nizhoutou channel.The transformation of Humen channel will affect the navigation environment and navigation safety.Therefore,it is necessary to study systematically navigation risk of Nizhoutou channel rebuilding project.Risk assessment of navigation channel is an important means to ensure navigation safety.But due to complexity of navigation environment,sudden,uncertainties and seriousness of the accidents,ship's navigation is fraught with risks.So engineers and researchers,especially waterway management are very concerned about the security of channel.Firstly,based on the basic characteristics of the navigation system,the paper analyzes the risk factors of navigation factors,and uses the principal component analysis(Principal Component Analysis,PCA)to filter the index factors to extract the representative index factors as an evaluation index.At the same time according to the screening of the evaluation index,the corresponding risk evaluation index system is constructed.Secondly,the weights of evaluating factors have been determined by calculating evaluation interval of each evaluation index using set-valued statistics method.Thirdly,from the point of view of safety system engineering,the methods of risk assessment of navigation are analyzed and summarized briefly.From the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages evaluation methods and the characteristics of assessment object,grey-fuzzy multifactorial evaluating model of navigation risk is built based on grey fuzzy theory.Finally,on the basis of the constructed evaluation model and the original navigation data,navigation risk assessment software is designed and developed by C# language.The Nizhoutou channel in Guangdong is analyzed and evaluated through the navigation risk assessment software.The results show that the calculation results are consistent with the actual situation.The software is practical and feasible.The risk assessment software in this paper is helpful to find safety hidden danger of channel and improve the efficiency and precision of navigation risk assessment,which is of great significance to ensure the safety of navigation.