Research On Navigation Safety Risk Evolution Law Of Three Gorges Dam Area

The Three Gorges project is the key project to develop and control the Yangtze River.It is also the largest water conservancy project in the world.It has comprehensive benefits such as flood control,power generation,shipping and so on.After the Three Gorges impounding and becoming reservoir,the navigation condition of reservoir area is greatly improved.The shipping industry is developing rapidly,and the number and type of ships are increasing.At the same time,some new factors which are unfavorable for the navigation are appeared,too,like the wave and wind gets stronger,the paroxysmal fog gets more,and the point of ship’s route gets more.The navigation environment of Three Gorges Dam becomes more and more complex,because of the further improve of the channel conditions,a number of anchorages,harbors,emergency moorings and terminals are formed,and the water traffic safety management provisions,such as the regulations for the lock,routing system regulations,are generated,too.Due to the complexity of the natural environment and the traffic environment,the Three Gorges Dam safety is highly sensitive,and the probability risk of all kind of ship safety accidents is bigger,which have different negative effects on the navigating of Yangtze River and the benefit of Three Gorges Dam,and even cause serious social,political and international influence.Therefore,the research on the navigation safety risk evolution law of Three Gorges Dam Area,the study on the inherent law of risk evolution in theory and the countermeasure and the suggestion to reduce navigation safety risk of Three Gorges Dam Area,is important to further enhance the level of safety of navigation dam.This paper is based on the navigation safety risk as the research object in the Three Gorges Dam Area,and summarizes the navigation safety situation of Three Gorges Dam Area by research and literature data.In this paper,the factors of navigation safety risk can be divided into five aspects,which include the natural environment risk,the management behavior risk,the channel sate risk,the ship risk and the crew risk.On this basis,this paper compiles the measuring scale,screens the indexes,and constructs the index system of navigation safety risk evolution of the Three Gorges Dam Area.Then,the theoretical relationship model of risk evolution is presented in this paper.The paper applies the method of structural equation model,inspection and correction the theoretical relationship model which is constructed through the questionnaire data with statistics software AMOS.The basic process of risk evolution can be divided into the inducing,the spread and upgrade.This paper analysis the induced process from the natural environment risk,the management behavior risk,the channel sate risk,the ship risk and the crew risk,the spread process between the risk and ultimately upgrade process for the navigation safety risk based on the revised evolution model.In the end,according to the results of the model result,aiming at the status quo of the Three Gorges Dam Area’ safety,the paper puts forward the countermeasures and the suggestion to reduce the navigation safety risk respectively from the crew,the channel condition,the natural environment and the management behavior in order to provide reference to improve the navigation safety level of the Three Gorges Dam Area.