Robust Optimization Of Enterprise Production Decision Under Emission Trading Conditions

Emission trading is an innovative emission reduction policy which has been paid attention by all countries.The issuance of the “National Carbon Emission Trading Market Construction Program(Power Generation Industry)” marks that China has officially launched the national carbon emissions trading system.However,in order for enterprises to become the real main body of the trading market,we must make it aware of the “profitable” of pollution control and enhance the initiative of enterprises in pollution control.In the increasingly competitive modern market,the demand volatility is widespread in the market system;furthermore,due to the current emissions trading market is not perfect,and emissions trading by the relevant laws and regulations,technological innovation,initial allocation and economic development trend and many other factors,so it has high uncertainty.Therefore,it is necessary to study the optimization of enterprise production decision under the uncertainty of product demand and the uncertainty of market price of emission rights.Therefore,in this paper,we first analyze the theory and operation mechanism of emission trading,and explained the application of robust optimization method in production decision-making of emissions trading companies;then under the deterministic conditions,the factors affecting the production and operation of emission trading companies and their optimal production decision-making and reduction decisions are further analyzed;based on the above analysis,considering the uncertain factors of product market and emission trading in the market,using non-linear optimization,robust optimization,analysis of uncertain production decision rights trading enterprise sewage situation,through the construction of product demand uncertainty and the market for emission right price uncertainty of corporate earnings model,with the minimax regret value production decision criteria for a robust solution;finally through numerical calculation and simulation,analysis of influence of various parameters on the production decision process,and verify the conclusion.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)When the emission price is given,decision-making and production decisions of enterprises will be determined,and the optimal amount of pollution,the optimal emission amount and emission price negatively related to optimal levels and cut emissions prices is positively correlated with the maximum return permits price increase decreased first and then increased.(2)When business managers make production decisions in the context of product demand or emission market price uncertainty,In order to make the enterprise production decision better to deal with all kinds of uncertainty,it can be assumed that the product demand or the market price of emission rights obey the uniform distribution in advance,and the production decision of the enterprise has good robustness.(3)Through the comparative analysis of the conclusions,when the unknown uncertainty is distributed,the uncertainty is assumed to be uniformly distributed,and the solution with robustness is the same as that based on the minimax regret criterion.In this article,we analyze the uncertainties faced by manufacturing companies in the process of the official launch of the national carbon emissions trading system,and provides some suggestions and guidance for the risk decision-making in the production process,and enhances the adaptability of the emission trading mechanism.