| The frequent occurrence of natural disasters has brought a serious threat to the life and property safety of the country and people,causing great losses to the social economy.Therefore,the study of risk management of city natural disasters caused close attention from all walks of life.The urban agglomeration is a group that is closely related to social economy,urban planning and infrastructure and so on.If the advantages of cross-regional division of labor can be fully exploited,it will open up a new path for the study on the risk of city natural disasters.Therefore,supported by the national key R&D project(2016YFC0802051),"Comprehensive risk assessment technology for urban agglomeration public safety",this paper sets out from the perspective of the West side of the Straits urban agglomeration.Taking natural disasters as the research object,this paper analyzes the characteristics of natural disasters and comprehensive risk analysis of urban agglomeration in the West Bank of the Straits,in order to provide theoretical reference for disaster risk management of urban agglomerations.First of all,through the natural disaster data collection of the urban agglomeration in West Coast,analysis of loss data such as tropical cyclones,storm floods,droughts and other major natural disasters,such as affected area,area of harvest,affected population,dead population,direct economic loss,it is concluded that under the government's disaster prevention and mitigation strategy,the trend of the losses are reduced but the situation is still serious.At the same time,based on the basic theory of disaster evolution network,the characteristics of disaster chain of three typical natural disasters were analyzed for tropical cyclones,storm floods and low temperature freezing,based on the statistical analysis of the node's in and out degree and the number of branches and other data in the disaster chain,the risk level of each disaster and its derivative disaster is obtained,and the chain-breaking measures of disaster prevention and mitigation are put forward.Secondly,the theory of system dynamics is introduced to analyze the system dynamics characteristics of natural disasters in urban agglomeration,constructing the index system variables related to the system dynamics model to establish the system dynamics model of natural disaster loss of urban agglomeration,and selecting the representative index variables to simulate the influence to the urban agglomeration of natural disaster losses.In order to comprehensive risk on the urban agglomeration in West Coast of natural disasters for better analysis,in this paper,the typhoon disaster of the urban agglomeration in West Coast is taken as an example to establish the typhoon disaster loss system,the system dynamics simulation analysis was carried out from four aspects:typhoon derived disaster,typhoon intensity,typhoon monitoring and early warning ability and emergency rescue and disposal ability.This paper analysis the impact of the vulnerability index on the typhoon-derived disasters,and analysis the influence of the typical varnables such as safety input level and government emphasis on typhoon monitornng and early warning capability and emergency response and rescue ability,it is concluded that the simulation result is consistent with the actual situation of the conclusion,and on the basis of the simulation results propose rnsk management strategies.Finally,according to the above analysis of the characteristics of natural disasters in the urban agglomeration in West Coast and comprehensive risk,puts forward the countermeasures of disaster prevention and mitigation of natural disasters in accordance with the features of urban agglomeration.In order to better apply the advantages of urban group cross-regional collaborative emergency rescue to the risk management of natural disasters,this paper starts from three aspects the towrn,cross-city and inter-provincial,not only to consider the city within the town of disaster prevention and mitigation measures,but also taking into account the city within the city and inter-provincial cities,puts forward the policy of disaster prevention and mitigation for the characteristics of urban agglomeration,such as coordination emergency rescue,cross-regional disaster information sharing,collaborative emergency rescue,emergency resource dispatching and disaster information monitoring,the advantage of cross-regional cooperation of urban agglomeration is applied to the risk management of natural disasters.It is believed that this study can provide empirical reference for future urban agglomeration risk research. |
PDF Full Text Request