Research On Volatility Spillover Effect And Price Forecast Of China's Carbon Market

The massive emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide are important causes of climate change,and countries have been working to address climate issues.The carbon emissions trading market is an important way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat climate change.As the largest carbon emitter,China attaches great importance to climate issues.The Chinese government proposes to build a national carbon trading market with the aim of using market mechanisms to save energy and reduce emissions and achieve green and low-carbon development.This paper hopes to accurately control the fluctuations of China's carbon market and the causes of fluctuations by studying China's carbon trading market,thereby promoting the better development of the carbon trading market and achieving the goal of reducing emissions.This paper takes the five carbon trading markets of Shenzhen,Beijing,Guangdong,Shanghai and Hubei as the research object,compares and analyzes the current situation of carbon market transactions in various regions,and studies the spillover effect of China's carbon market.Finally,the EEMD-LSTM model was constructed to predict carbon prices.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:First,analysis of the current situation of China's carbon market.Describe the development of China's carbon market based on the trading volume,transaction volume and transaction price of each carbon market.In terms of transaction volume and transaction volume,Hubei carbon market ranks first in all aspects,while Tianjin,Chongqing and Fujian carbon markets are relatively backward;from the transaction price point of view,Hubei carbon market has the highest average transaction price,followed by Shenzhen carbon market..At present,the average transaction price of each carbon market is relatively low,and the carbon price level has not yet truly played a role in guiding low carbon.In addition,through the analysis of carbon price fluctuation characteristics,it is found that each carbon market has agglomeration effect and sustained effect,among which Shenzhen carbon market has the strongest agglomeration effect and sustained effect.Second,research on the spillover effects of China's carbon market.From a static perspective,the carbon market in each region is affected by the spillover effects of other markets,but it is mainly affected by temperature changes.Similarly,the spillover effects of each carbon market on other markets are also inconsistent.The carbon market inShenzhen and Guangdong has the highest economic spillover effect;the spillover effect of the Beijing carbon market on oil and economy is closer and higher than other markets;the Shanghai carbon market is on coal.The highest spillover effect.In general,the yields of various carbon markets can explain their variance changes to a large extent,and other factors have less impact on them.From a dynamic perspective,the Shenzhen carbon market is the net exporter of the volatility spillover effect.The Beijing carbon market and the Hubei carbon market are the net importers of the volatility spillover effect,while the Guangdong and Shanghai carbon markets change over time,and the volatility spillover effect will The output side becomes the net input side.Last,China's carbon market price forecast research.Combine empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)and long-term and short-term memory network(LSTM)to construct EEMD-LSTM model to predict the carbon market price of each region,and use RMSE,MAE and MAPE indicators to evaluate the prediction accuracy of EEMD-LSTM model.It can be seen that the prediction accuracy of this model is better than other models.