Research On Carbon Emission Prediction Of Thermal Power Plant Based On System Dynamics

Global temperature rise and the increase of carbon dioxide emissions has been the focus of the world.As one of the world's major energy powers,China's carbon emissions have caused widespread concern.Power industry is the basis of ensuring people's livelihood,and it is also an industry with large energy consumption.However,thermal power generation is still the main power generation mode in China,which faces great pressure of emission reduction.Therefore,it is of great significance for the formulation of carbon emission reduction strategies for thermal power plants to comb the operation process of coal power chain system of thermal power plants,calculate and predict the carbon emissions of thermal power plants.In this paper,the carbon emission status of China's thermal power generation is studied,the status of thermal power generation in China's power industry is analyzed,and the accounting method of carbon dioxide emissions,the concept of coal power chain and the main problems in the carbon emission accounting of thermal power plants are summarized.Secondly,the life cycle method is used to calculate the carbon emissions of thermal power plants.Based on the theory of system dynamics,the dynamic model of carbon dioxide emission system of thermal power plants is constructed.On the basis of verifying the effectiveness of the model,the simulation prediction is made by using Vensim software.The carbon emission system dynamics model of thermal power plant is mainly used to predict the total carbon emissions of thermal power plant,carbon emissions of mining and washing,carbon emissions of transportation,carbon emissions of coal-fired power generation,carbon emissions of tail gas treatment,total power generation and carbon emission intensity of thermal power plant.Finally,based on the research results of life cycle method and system dynamics,the countermeasures to reduce carbon emissions of thermal power enterprises are proposed from different perspectives.Through the calculation of carbon emission of thermal power plant and the prediction of system dynamics,the carbon emission and total carbon emission of different links in the process of emission reduction of thermal power plant are studied.The results show that the research on carbon emission reduction from the perspective of coal power chain can expand the depth and breadth of research in the field of carbon emission reduction.Adjusting the energy structure of thermal power enterprises and finding new clean energy can effectively reduce the total carbon emission.To enhance the emission reduction capacity of different links of thermal power enterprises,the use of advanced equipment can reduce the coal consumption rate,and thus improve the power generation efficiency of thermal power plants.