Quantifying The Uncertainties Of Anthropogenic Volatile Organic Compounds Emission Inventory In Xinzhou

Recent years,along with air quality improvement ozone pollution is still serious.Volatile organic compounds(VOCs),as the key precursors,have different influences on the formation of ground-level ozone.Therefore,it has great significance to understand the anthropogenic VOCs emission profiles,develop emission inventories and assessment the uncertainties.This study established an anthropogenic VOCs species emission inventory in 2016 for Xinzhou based on the latest emission factors,species profiles and quantified uncertainties by Monte Carlo simulation.According to preliminary investigation in Xinzhou.VOCs emission sources were classified into 85categories in fourth-level.Activity data were obtained through the"bottom-up" investigation method including three steps:data collection from government,questionnaire survey and field investigation.In 2016,the coal consumption was 1515.5 tons of Xinzhou,of which 12.06 million tons were consumed for thermal power generation,accounting for 79.6%of total consumption.The disposal of solid waste was mainly based on sanitary landfill,while corn straw and firewood were dominating biomass fuels for household stoves.The total VOCs emission in 2016 for Xinzhou was 31943.5 tons,with an uncertainty(expressed as the 95%CI around the central value)ranging from-42%-85%.The significant emission sources were industrial processes,stationary fossil fuel combustion,mobile source,biomass fuel combustion and solvent use.respectively accounting for 35.6%,22.2%,13.6%,12.3%and 10.7%.Results showed that the emission uncertainties of sub-source categories was significantly higher than the total by Monte Carlo simulation.The total VOCs emission were estimated to be most sensitive to the emission factors of coking,residential coal combustion and basic chemical production.Oxygenated VOCs were the major species of total emission with contribution of 26.6%,followed by alkanes and aromatic hydrocarbons,accounting for 21.9%and 20.1%.There were 21 species,including ethylene,dichloromethane and ethane,accounting for 67.39%,and each one contributing more than 1%of VOCs emission.VOC species emission with large uncertainties was estimated to be most sensitive to the emission factor and source profile of coking.Generally,VOC species inventory was mainly sensitive to emission factors and source profiles of residential coal and firewood combustion,basic chemical production,natural gas exploiting,domestic solvent use and asphalt paving.