Research On China-kazakhstan Oil And Gas Resources Cooperation Based On GTAP Model

Oil and gas resources play an important role in the process of economic development.China’s oil and gas resources are relatively insufficient,and seeking foreign cooperation is a realistic choice.China’s oil and gas is mainly imported from the Middle East and Africa.As the security risks continue to exist in the Middle East and in the Malacca Strait where oil and gas transportation passes,opening up new channels for oil and gas imports is of strategic importance to energy supply security.Strengthening energy cooperation between countries along the line is the main content of the “Belt and Road” construction.Kazakhstan is rich in oil and gas reserves and borders with Xinjiang in China.It is an ideal strategic cooperation partner of oil and gas resources.In order to quantitatively analyze the different impacts of different cooperation modes on oil and gas resources cooperation between China and Kazakhstan,this paper uses GTAP model to simulate the different policy environments of China-Kazakhstan oil and gas resources cooperation.This paper sets three scenarios,namely,technical spillover setting,reduction of technical trade barriers in China-Kazakhstan oil and gas industry,and combination of technology spillovers and reduction of technical barriers.The research shows that:(1)technology spillover effect can significantly promote Kazakhstan’s national economic growth,but it will also have obvious resource transfer effect on its domestic manufacturing industry,limited growth of China’s oil and gas imports;(2)reduce bilateral technical nature of China and Kazakhstan.Trade barriers have only a small growth effect on the Kazakhstan economy,but can significantly increase China’s oil and gas imports,and will also lead to greater oil and gas exports to China in other parts of the world;(3)the overall effect of the combination is moderate,both It is the most desirable scenario to increase China’s oil and gas imports and promote Kazakhstan’s economic growth without causing major distortions in resources between Kazakhstan’s domestic industries and large fluctuations in oil and gas exports to other parts of the world.