The Health Impact Induced By PM_2.5 Pollution Embodied In Interprovincial Electricity Exchange In China

Rapid economic growth and energy consumption based on fossil fuel resulted in severe air pollution.Due to imbalanced distribution of energy resources and energy consumption in China,several national energy programs have been launched to redistribute energy across China,including "Transportation of Coal from North to South","Transmission of Gas from West to East","Transmission of Electricity from North to South",and "Transmission of Electricity from West to East".Energy transfer among different regions,especially the thermal power or coal-fired power,have led to high emissions of air pollutants in those energy supply regions.By contrast,the air pollutant releases in those energy demand and inflow regions are reduced due to the reduction in power generation.This phenomenon is referred to as "Energy Justice" or "Environmental Equality",which has not been extensively investigated in China.To fill the knowledge gap,the present study assessed the health impact induced by PM_2.5 pollution embodied in interprovincial electricity exchange,aiming to provide basic data to policymakers in the collaborative harmonization in both energy supply and demand regions to reduce regional air pollution in China,and to provide theoretical basis for the reduction and elimination of environmental equality.In this study,the temporal and spatial characteristics of provincial power generation,consumption,and interprovincial exchange for electricity are analyzed based on provincial electricity data.Secondly,using the emission inventories of nitrogen oxides（NOX）and sulfur dioxide（SO₂）,the impact of interprovincial electricity exchange on NOX and SO₂ emission in each province were analyzed.Thirdly,WRF-Chem（Weather Research Forecast Model with Chemistry）was employed to simulate the impact of interprovincial electricity exchange on PM_2.5 pollution in China.Finally,the health impact induced by PM_2.5 pollution embodied in interprovincial electricity exchange in China was evaluated by using IER（Integrated Exposure-Response）function.Theconclusions of this thesis are as follows:（1）Power generation and consumption in each province of China increased from2005 to 2015.North,East,and South China were the major regions with high electricity generation and consumption.In particular,higher electricity generation and consumption occurred in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,and Guangdong.Compared with Southwest and Central China,the percentage of thermal power in total electricity generation in North and East China were higher.North and East China imported electricity from other regions due to insufficient power generation and energy resources.The energy input increased from 2005 to 2015 in these two regions.After 2012,the energy inflow in South China sped up.In Northwest,Northeast,and Central China,however,power generation exceeded power consumption.The surplus indicated that these regions were power supply regions to other parts of China.After 2012,the power surplus increased in Northeast and Northwest China but decreased in Central China.（2）Interprovincial electricity exchange and electricity grids increased from 2008to 2014.In general,the electricity exchange was dependent on by ―Transmission from West to East‖ and ―Power Supply from North to South‖,and was characterized with the power transmission from less developed and energy abundant provinces to developed provinces‖.Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang,Ningxia,Shanxi,Hubei,Anhui,Sichuan,Yunnan,and Guizhou were power outflow provinces,while well-developed and densely-populated Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,Liaoning,Shandong,and Guangdong were power inflow provinces.（3）The electricity sector is one of major contributors to air pollution.Thepercentage of NOX and SO₂ emission from electricity sector were 32.84% and 36.38% of their total emission in China in 2008,respectively.Higher NOX and SO₂ emission mainly occurred in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,Shanxi,Sichuan,Yunnan,Guizhou,and Hubei,particularly in the wintertime.The results revealed that,without the interprovincial electricity exchange,NOx and SO₂ emission in well-developed Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,and Guangdong would increase up to 15.26% and 12.79%,respectively.On the other hand,in those less developed and energy abundant and supply provinces,such asInner Mongolia,Shanxi,Sichuan,Yunnan,Guizhou,and Hubei,NOx and SO₂ air emissions decreased up to 22.82% and 15.75%,respectively.（4）In 2008,the higher surface PM_2.5 concentration was identified in Liaoning,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,Central China,and Sichuan Basin with the highest level in winter.As electricity supply provinces,PM_2.5 concentration in Anhui,Hubei,west Inner Mongolia,and Shanxi increased.However,PM_2.5 levels decreased in Yangtze River Delta and Shandong Peninsula due to the electricity inflow from other regions.（5）In 2008,the premature deaths induced by PM_2.5 pollution in China were941,800（95% CI : 659933,1207602）,occurring mainly in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,Central China,Sichuan basin,and other densely-populated cities.If interprovincial electricity exchange was not taken into account,the premature deaths induced by PM_2.5 pollution power transmission would increase by 1275（95% CI:803,1632）、435（95% CI:352,526）and 56（95% CI:42,76）in East,Southwest and Northeast China,respectively,but decrease by 2478（95% CI:1487,3147）、792（95% CI:594,950）、402（95% CI:261,515）and 234（95% CI:187,328）in Central,South,Northwest,and North China,respectively.