Statistical Measurement Of Influencing Factors Of Air Pollution In Major Provinces And Cities Of China

Since the reform and opening policy,China’s regions have been facing the problem of air pollution,which can not be ignored while the economy continues to develop at a high speed.The deterioration of air quality will bring tremendous threat and damage to public health,ecological environment and even economic development.In order to make our country truly achieve the expectation of President Xi Jinping that we should have both green waters and green mountains,as well as Jinshan and Yinshan,it is urgent to control air pollution.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to analyze the current situation of air pollution in various regions of China,to study the influencing factors of air pollution in depth,to forecast the future air quality and to put forward reasonable measures to control the air pollution situation,so as to promote the improvement of air quality,social economy and ecological environment in China.Based on the relevant data of 30 major provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2011 to 2017,this thesis makes a deep study of the four factors affecting air pollution in China,namely,industrial development,road traffic,technological progress and government response.It focuses on three aspects:(1)Air pollution status and air pollution status of major provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China through the analysis of current situation.The present situation of the influencing factors of pollution is analyzed,and the development process of air pollution and its influencing factors in various provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China is preliminarily understood;(2)Descriptive analysis is made on the selected data of relevant indicators,describing the information contained in the data from the angles of average,coefficient of variation and kurtosis,and doing basic work for subsequent empirical analysis;(3)Empirical analysis side Firstly,based on the partial least squares regression model,the air pollution situation and its four factors in 30 major provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions of China were modeled.The air pollution indexes were measured and predicted by the model results.It is found that the air pollution status of major provinces and cities in China has a strong correlation with industrial growth and road traffic indicators,such as the proportion of industrial growth,investment in energy industry fixed assets and road mileage,which have a significant impact on the three major air pollutants,and the coefficient given by the model is the maximum of all variables.Regardless of the correlation coefficient or the variable coefficient of the model,the relationship between the indicators and technological innovation and government response is relatively small,and the coefficients of some variables are quite different from the expected values.For example,the environmental tax index of local government,the final coefficient of the model shows that the index will aggravate the air pollution situation,which is inconsistent with the public’s idea.Besides excluding the objective reasons such as errors,it is believed that the indicators of government response will cause the exhaust emitters to have the mentality of "tax can be discharged" and thus produce the results given by the model.Finally,the regression model has a good prediction effect,which can be used to predict air pollution in a short time.Finally,according to the results of the model,the paper puts forward some suggestions: optimizing the industrial structure,increasing the use of clean energy;improving public transport,and continuing to implement the policy of limit;improving the quality of technology,focusing on the development of "green technology";strengthening supervision,and dealing with the drawbacks of emission reduction policy.