Investment Value Evaluation Of Natural Gas Distributed Energy Projects Under PPP Mode

The natural gas distributed energy project as an important sector of natural gas power generation has achieved relatively rapid development in China in the past two years.At the same time,the National Development and Reform Commission has issued a series of policies to encourage the development of distributed energy projects and clearly defined the attitude of the national promotion of natural gas distributed energy PPP(Public-Private-Partnership).Natural gas distributed energy spans multiple fields such as electricity,oil and gas,municipalities,and science and technology,and involves the interests of multiple sectors.The construction and operation of natural gas distributed energy involves coordination and cooperation in various fields such as the power grid,oil and gas,municipal engineering,and technology.The sharing of benefits and risks is not yet clear.At the same time,the government wants to bear the least responsibility during the construction and operation of the project.Investors could not obtain the expected benefits from the project analysis,which also led to the implementation of the PPP project results are less than expected.This paper focuses on the insufficiency of traditional project value assessment methods and the uncertainties in natural gas distributed energy PPP projects to establish a real option value assessment method to study the value of natural gas distributed energy projects under the PPP model and provide accurate projects for social investors.Value as a reference for investment decisions,while laying the foundation for the further development of China's natural gas distributed energy.This paper establishes the real option evaluation model of PPP model.For the characteristics of the PPP model project,the main uncertainties affecting the PPP project are proposed.Based on the assumptions of parameters,the PPP project real option value evaluation model was constructed,taking full account of the impact of project construction period,concession period,net cash flow,volatility,drift rate,risk-freeinterest rate and other relevant factors on the value of PPP projects.In this paper,parameter assumptions are made and numerical analysis shows that the value of the project obtained by using the real option value evaluation method is greater than the value obtained by using the traditional NPV evaluation method.At the same time,the validity of the model was confirmed by case solving and sensitivity analysis,and suggestions were made for the development of natural gas distributed energy PPP projects.