| As an important indicator of linkage oil demand and the international economy,national government,and energy industry,international oil prices will cause unpredictable risks to oil production,processing,consumption,trade and other enterprises.Since the two oil price reforms in 1998 and 2000,the international integration of domestic crude oil and refined oil prices has made Chinese oil imports more vulnerable to fluctuations in international oil prices.Coupled with the financial crisis,production cuts and the large demand in emerging economies,the price instability of oil prices has further increased.As the world's largest net importer of oil,China faces the oil supply and demand gap caused by the rapid development of the domestic economy,as well as the decline of external global oil reserves,and the fierce pressure on the world's economies to compete for oil production,the violent fluctuations in oil prices will seriously affect China's national economic security and national security.Therefore,combing the influencing factors of international oil price fluctuations and the transmission path of international oil price fluctuations to the macro economy,constructing an econometric model to examine and confirm the effects of international oil prices on China's economy will have important theoretical and practical significance for in-depth analysis of international energy market prices for macroeconomic operations and China's formulation of relevant strategic policies in the face of international oil price volatility.This paper finds out whether the rise in oil prices has become one of the main factors hindering the development of China's economy by sorting out relevant domestic and international research results on crude oil market and macro economy.There is no consistent conclusion,and the consideration of the inconsistency of the indicator frequency in the analysis of China's macroeconomic relationship is relatively small.Therefore,based on the characteristics of variable data and the inertia of the economic system,a MIDAS-AR model is constructed that can comprehensively utilize quarterly data and monthly data.Through total amount analysis,time period analysis and core industry analysis,the impact effect of international oil price changes on China's macro economy is determined.The research conclusions of this paper include: 1.Total analysis measures the comprehensive impact of oil price fluctuations on China's quarterly GDP.It is concluded that international oil price volatility has a certain inertia(hatch effect)on China's GDP change,and the average impact effect has reached 0.9814%.In 1992-2018,the fluctuation of international oil prices had a positive impact on GDP,that is,the oil price rose by 1%,which would increase China's GDP by 0.018979%.2.Time period analysis shows that the rise and fall of international oil prices have an asymmetrical character to China's GDP output.Specifically,during the period of rising oil prices,international oil prices have a positive impact on GDP,that is,a 1% increase in oil prices will boost China's GDP by 0.043919%.During the fall in oil prices,international oil prices have a negative impact on GDP.That is,a 1% increase in oil prices will reduce China's GDP by 0.013140%.And the impact of rising oil prices on China's macro economy is significantly greater than the impact of falling oil prices on China's macro economy.3.Core industry analysis shows that the international oil price has a significant impact on China's macroeconomic industrial sector,that is,the oil price increase of 1% will increase the total industrial output value of China by 0.053591%.The concomitant effect of oil prices on industry has an indelible contribution to the entire national economy,and the high oil prices triggered by demand shocks will promote the expansion of the industrial economy.At the same time,it is also found that the effect of oil prices on the industrial sector is significantly greater than the impact of oil price fluctuations on the overall macro economy. |
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