| China regards carbon emissions trading as an effective measure to achieve national carbon emission reduction promises.In order to promote the domestic carbon emissions trading system in an orderly manner,China has included the high-emission power industry.Study the foreign carbon emission system represented by the EU ETS and the carbon emission system of the domestic carbon emission pilot,and analyze the impact of different systems on the power industry.It can be seen that the vigorous implementation of the carbon emissions trading system will have a significant guiding effect on the power industry.Studying the changes that will occur in the power industry under the background of carbon emissions trading,along with how to deal with the impact of carbon emissions rights,are issues that the power industry needs to pay attention to at present.For electric power producers,power grid enterprise,electric sales companies,and terminal users in the "generation"," transmission(distribution)",and"application" processes of the power industry,research is conducted on the basis of carbon emission policies.Vensim software,The BP neural network algorithm and the least squares algorithm of the MATLAB platform is applied to establish a domestic electric power industry simulation model under the background of carbon emission rights,predicting the changes that the carbon trading market would carry to the electric power industry,hence representing a significant reference for the coming development of the electric power industry.The research contents and results of this paper are as follows:(1)Detailed analysis of the carbon emission calculation formulas of power generation companies and power grid companies to construct a schematic diagram of the causal relationship between domestic carbon emissions trading and the power industry.Through the simple diagram of causality,it is concluded that the core circuit of the system is the load demand-coal consumption-power generation-power transmission circuit connecting the power generation side,the transmission side and the consumption side.A causal tree analysis is employed on the four variables of"coal consumption","load demand","power generation",and "power transmission",leading to the construction of domestic carbon emissions trading Stack flow diagrams and dynamic models with domestic power generation and power grid companies around "power generation company profits" and "grid company profit".According to the sensitivity test analysis,it can be found that the national power generation capacity and thermal power generation capacity have a great impact on the profits of domestic power generation enterprises,the national power supply capacity has a great impact on the profits of domestic power grid enterprises,while the annual emission control coefficient and carbon quota transaction price have an impact on power generation enterprises profits and grid company profits have a greater impact.Total power consumption,thermal power generation,and carbon quota prices are the leading factors influencing carbon emissions trading on the power industry.(2)Analyze the relationship between domestic production development,population growth,optimization of industrial ratio and total power consumption,and set the "gross domestic product(100 million yuan)" and "total population(ten thousand people)" from 2000 to 2018,"The added value of the secondary industry(100 million yuan)","The added value of the tertiary industry(100 million yuan)","Urban population(ten thousand people)","Total power consumption(100 million kWh)" as data The data set is entered into the BP neural network simulation model based on MATLAB,and the "gross domestic product(100 million yuan)","total population(ten thousand people)","secondary industry added value(100 million yuan)","the first The added value of the tertiary industry(100 million yuan)," urban population(ten thousand people)" and " total consumption of electricity and energy" have been constructed based on“GDP”,"total population"," added value of the secondary industry",and The simulation model of the prediction model of the total value of electricity and energy consumption(thousand-kilowatt-hour)with "value added of the three industries" and "urban population" as dependent variables.According to the forecast of national policies,the "GDP(100 million yuan)","total population(ten thousand people)","secondary industry added value(100 million yuan)","third industry added value(2019 100 million yuan)"and"Urban population(ten thousand people)",brought into the BP neural network simulation model to obtain the predicted value of total power consumption "from 2019 to 2030.According to the predicted value analysis,in order to achieve population control and industrial structure optimization on the basis of maintaining stable growth in national production and development,China's total power consumption will reach its peak by 2030.(3)By analyzing the national power data after the trial of China's carbon quota system and the trend of carbon quota prices in the Beijing pilot that included the power industry in the carbon compliance list,a simulation model of the impact of carbon quota prices on thermal power generation in the context of carbon emissions trading was constructed.It can be seen that,based on the premise of achieving the national development goals,the carbon quota price can effectively affect the proportion of thermal power generation in the country's power generation,which is conducive to the optimization and adjustment of the national energy structure.(4)Simulate the impact of different carbon quota price changes on thermal power generation under different carbon emission reduction policies.Power generation enterprises will face the situation of rising carbon compliance costs and difficulties in new thermal power generation projects.Reducing the unit carbon emission intensity,rationally optimizing the type of power generation structure,and taking advantage of the price difference of carbon emission rights trading products are the options that power generation companies can choose;grid enterprises Will face the situation of investing in retrofitting costs to achieve grid reduction,reducing grid losses,optimizing grid structure,and improving the ability of grid to accept renewable energy are options that grid companies can choose;electricity sales companies and power users are facing increased carbon compliance costs In the situation,after the opening of the national carbon trading market,choosing provinces with lower transmission and distribution costs to purchase electricity and actively participate in energy conservation and emission reduction transformation is a plan that can be adopted by electricity sales companies and users. |
PDF Full Text Request