Research On Safety Evaluation Of Lao Tieshan Channel And Its Adjacent Waters

The Laotieshan Channel is located in the northern part of the Bohai Strait and is the only way for ships to transit Huanghai and Bohai.Moreover,according to its ship routing system,the navigable width of the ships is only 5.5 nautical miles,and.the nearby waters are important fishing grounds in northern China,and there are many fishing vessels,so the traffic flow is very dense.As the number of import and export ships in China increases year by year,the Laotieshan Channel and its adjacent waters have also become one of the high-risk waters in China with frequent channel accidentsThe main purpose of this dissertation is to conduct a navigation safety assessment study on the Laotieshan waterway and its adjacent waters.First,through the analysis of the four factors of crew,ship,environment and management,the preliminary evaluation indicators of the navigation safety evaluation system are selected.Based on the previous research,this dissertation analyzes the causes of traffic accident's in the Laotieshan Waterway and its adjacent waters through the gray correlation analysis methods and establish a navigation safety evaluation system for crew,ship,environment,and management.In the navigation safety assessment,this dissertation makes grey correlation statistics on the accident data of the Laotieshan Waterway and its adjacent waters in the past ten years,and determines the Weight of each causal factor through the Bp neural network,combined with the causative factors in previous studies,the relationship between the credibility and the correlation degree of the evaluation index,determines the weight of each evaluation index.This method avoids the influence of subjective factors when determining the index weight by the traditional method,and ensures the validity and accuracy of the weight.In the navigation safety evaluation,this dissertation uses the gray clustering evaluation model to determine the gray clustering function of each evaluation index,and combined with the risk assessment criteria of each index,to determine the risk level of each factor and the overall water hazard level for improvement the navigable environment in the waters and provides a theoretical basis.