Spatio-temporal Evolution Of Eco-efficiency And Influencing Factors Of Central Plains Urban Agglomeration

In the context of advancing green development and the construction of ecological civilization,various regions are urgently demanding changes in economic development methods,changing the situation that economic development is overly dependent on resources and the environment,and promoting regional sustainable development.Ecological efficiency has become an important method and means for comprehensively assessing the impact of regional economic activities because of comprehensive consideration of the coordinated development of resources,the environment,and the economy.The Central Plains Urban Agglomeration is located in a favorable position of the national "two horizontal and three vertical" urbanization strategic pattern and has strong development potential,but at the same time,the constraints on resources and the environment,water shortage,and resource allocation efficiency Problems such as inferiority are prominent and have brought serious negative impacts on the sustainable development of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration.The Central Plains Urban Agglomeration is at a critical stage of accelerating its rise.The full integration of the concept of ecological civilization into the development process of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration is very important to achieve efficient and green urban development.Therefore,analyzing the ecological development status of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration,measuring its ecological efficiency,and exploring the temporal and spatial evolution of the ecological efficiency of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration and its influencing factors are of great practical significance for promoting the sustainable development of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration.Taking the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration as the research object,this paper used a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods,depicted the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and analyzed the influencing factors of ecological efficiency from 2003 to 2017.The Super-SBM model was used to measure the eco-efficiency of 29 cities in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration firstly.Then used GIS technology to describe the spatial correlation characteristics of eco-efficiency and examined the evolution characteristics of the eco-efficiency types of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration in terms of time series development and spatial distribution.Then used panel data to establish a spatial measurement model,and analyzed the influencing factors to verify the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve test(EKC)and analyze the spillover effects of eco-efficiency,and find out the influencing factors.Finally,the Markov chain probability transition matrix was used to analyze the possibility of eco-efficiency to realize space-time transition.The result showed that:(1)the eco-efficiency of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration generally showed an overall stepped trend from 2003 to 2017.There were differences among regions,with a pattern of high in the north and south but low in the middle.(2)The ecoefficiency of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration presents positive spatial autocorrelation,and the degree of spatial agglomeration gradually increased.The cold spot area changed dynamically in the northwestern part of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration,and the southeast area formed a stable hot spot.(3)The eco-efficiency of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration had a positive space spillover effect.Industrial structure,factor endowment structure,and the level of openness were the main influencing factors.The urbanization rate and government intervention had no significant impact on eco-efficiency.In the process of new-type urbanization,the cities need to achieve cross-regional coordination and cooperation,constantly change the mode of economic development,optimize the industrial structure,rationally allocate factors and promote the free flow of factors,and continue to improve the level of opening up to the outside world and vigorously develop an outward-oriented economy to improve regional ecological efficiency.(4)The economic development and eco-efficiency of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration conform to the Kuznets curve hypothesis.There is a “U-shaped” curve relationship between economic development and ecological efficiency.(5)The traditional Markov probability transfer matrix shows that the structure of ecological efficiency is stable,and it is difficult to achieve leapfrogging in a short period of time.The spatial Markov transfer matrix indicates that the neighborhood background can promote or restrict the evolution of the ecological efficiency of the Central Plains urban agglomeration.In particular,when the neighborhood background is medium to high level,it has little impact on low-and medium-level cities.The LISA Markov transition probability matrix showed that when the city itself is at a high level,no matter what state its neighborhood is in,it is more likely that it will form a high and high agglomeration.Similarly,it is at a low level,the probability of low-low agglomeration is greater.The analysis of the three Markov chains shows that the spatial structure of the ecological efficiency of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration has the characteristics of stability and long-term,and the possibility of realizing class transition is relatively small.