Analysis Of The Pathways To Peak Energy-related Carbon Emissions In China And Its Provinces

Climate governance has been a critical dimension of global and national governance.China has pledged in its Nationally Determined Contributions?NDCs?to peak its carbon emissions no later than 2030.However,the varying carbon emissions trajectories of individual provinces make it difficult to determine whether China can fulfill this ambitious goal on time.Research into China's peak emissions is of vital significance to the fulfillment of not only Chinese NDCs,but also the Paris Agreement and global climate governance.To bring transparency and clarity to this core issue,this paper explores whether and how all the 30 Chinese provinces will peak their energy-related emissions in future by accounting for the energy-related emissions of 30 Chinese provinces in 1995²015 and developing a set of extended STIRPAT models that investigate the driving forces behind each province and integrating the estimates into scenario analysis for peaking simulation.We observe that,despite continued economic growth,26 provinces are highly likely to reach peak emissions under at least one scenario,whereas the remaining are not.While the earliest peak-reaching scenarios may not be the best option for those provinces whose cumulative carbon emissions are estimated to be considerably large.To ensure a viable reaching of China's peak emissions,much more attention should be paid to seeking for the most appropriate emissions trajectory to peak at the subnational level with relatively low cumulative value.Provincial results in aggregate show that China may peak emissions in the period 2028²040 with cumulative emissions ranging from 403607⁴56191 Mt CO₂,while 2030 would be the optimal year for the country to peak because of the lowest cumulative carbon emissions.However,considering that the probability of peaking emissions between 2028 and 2040 is not identical,this paper further makes use of Monte Carlo's scenario prediction and probability estimation,showing that the probability of reaching peak emissions in 2031 is the largest.Our findings provide a deeper understanding of China's potential peaking pathways by province,but also assist policy makers in better prediction and evaluation of possible emissions trajectories for other nations and the whole world from a bottom-up perspective.