Impact Of Participating In Global Value Chains On Carbon Emissions Embodied In China's Exports

With the international division of labor penetrating into all aspects of production,the global value chains(GVCs)has been formed and become an important feature of the development of international trade.With its abundant resources,China has actively integrated into the division of GVCs led by developed countries,which has caused severe environmental problems while gaining trade benefits.Therefore,under the realistic background of coping with global climate change and achieving the 2030 carbon emission target,it is necessary to study the impact of participating in GVCs on carbon emissions embodied in China's exports,in order to provide theoretical basis and data support for the realization of China's low carbon target.Firstly,based on the multi-regional input-output model,this study measures the embedded degree of GVCs and the carbon emissions embodied in exports of China's 56 sectors during 2000-2014,analyzes differences and time series evolution characteristics,and reveals the correlation between the embedded degree of GVCs and the carbon emissions embodied in China's exports.Secondly,this study constructs a panel regression model to study the impact of participating in GVCs on carbon emissions embodied in China's exports,and tests the robustness of the model from the perspective of sector heterogeneity.Then,this study explores the differences of the impact of different embedded modes of GVCs on carbon emissions embodied in China's exports.The intermediary effect model is used to identify the path of the impact of different embedded modes of GVCs on carbon emissions embodied in China's exports.Finally,the study measures the carbon emissions embodied in China's export and regional outflow,analyzes the spatial evolution pattern and spatial correlation of China's regional GVCs participation and the carbon emissions embodied in China's exports and regional outflow,and identifies the spatial spillover effect of China's regional GVCs participation on the carbon emissions embodied in China's exports and regional outflow through the spatial econometric model.The conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)The measurement results of the embedding degree of GVCs show that the degree of China's integration into GVCs continues to deepen during 2000-2014,and the sector GVCs continues to extend,but it is still in the middle and lower reaches.The measurement results of the carbon emissions embodied in China's exports show that the overall carbon emissions fluctuates and rises during 2000-2014,and there are big differences between sectors.(2)The results of panel regression model show that the increase of embedded position of GVCs has a significant inhibitory effect on the carbon emissions embodied in China's exports,and the potential endogenous problems of this model will underestimate the influencing degree.(3)The research based on different embedded models of GVCs shows that the increase of forward participation and backward participation and the increase of backward production length have a significant role in promoting the carbon emissions,while the increase of forward production length has a significant role in restraining the carbon emissions.(4)The results of the intermediary effect model show that the scale effect,the structure effect and the technology progress effect are the main paths of the impact of participating in GVCs on carbon emissions embodied in China's exports.(5)The results of spatial econometric model show that there are obvious spatial differences and agglomeration of carbon emissions embodied in China's export and regional outflow in different regions,and the regional differences on both sides of Heihe-Tengchong line are the most obvious.Under the condition of economic distance matrix,the direct effect of regional vertical specialization index on carbon emissions is significantly positive.Under the condition of spatial adjacency matrix,geographical distance matrix and economic distance matrix,the estimation coefficient of spatial lag variable of vertical specialization index is also significantly positive,which indicates that there is significant interregional spillover of China's regional GVCs and carbon emissions.Based on the above conclusions,this stduy puts forward some recommendations from the perspectives of changing the development mode of foreign trade,promoting low-carbon production mode,leading regional value chains and formulating different regional carbon emission reduction policies.Main innovations of this study are as follows:(1)This study puts GVCs and carbon emissions embodied in exports in a unified framework,and identifies the heterogeneity of impact of participating in GVCs on carbon emissions embodied in exports.(2)This study tests the intermediary effects of scale effect,structure effect and technology progress effect,and identifies the path of the impact.(3)From the perspective of spatial measurement,this study analyzes the spatial evolution trend of the carbon emissions embodied in China's export and regional outflow,and explores the spatial spillover effect.