The Impact Of Atmospheric PM_2.5 On Mortality Of Circulatory System Diseases In Shenyang

Objectives To analyze the quantitative relationship between atmospheric PM2.5 in Shenyang city and the death of residents due to diseases of the circulatory system,determine the susceptible population most affected by air pollution,and judge the susceptibility difference between men and women.To explore the impact of air pollution on the number of deaths in the circulatory system and provide a basis for taking effective intervention measures,protect susceptible population,and formulate hygiene standards.Method 1 The data were collected including residents death in the main urban area of Shenyang from 2014 to 2018,and the daily average concentration of air pollutants(PM2.5,PM10,NO2,SO2)and the average concentration of O3 in 8 hours(O3-8 h)and the daily average of meteorological data(temperature,air pressure,relative humidity,etc.)during the same period.2 The seasonal characteristics of air pollution were described and analyzed in Shenyang from 2014 to 2018,the long-term change trend and the general characteristics of population' deaths due to circulatory system diseases.3 A natural spline smoothing function was used to control the daily death toll,average daily temperature,and the long-term and seasonal change trends and to control the effect of the "day of the week" effect using R3.6.1 to establish a generalized linear model based on Poisson distribution and a nonlinear model of distribution lag.The combined method was used to predict the relationship between PM2.5 exposure and the death of population' circulatory system diseases,and estimate the possible hysteresis effect of air pollution.Results 1 From 2014 to 2018,the average daily PM2.5 concentration in the main urban area of Shenyang exceeded the national secondary standard by 432 days,the rate of exceeding the standard was 23.66%,the median daily average concentration was 44?g/m3,and the highest was 908 ?g/m3,the lowest was 4 ?g/m3.2 From 2014 to 2018,a total of 83768 residents died from circulatory diseases in the main urban area of Shenyang,including 46179 men(55.13%)and 37589 women(44.87%);The number of deaths at the age of less than 60 was 15257(18.21%),and the number of deaths at the age of more than 60 was 68511(81.79%).3 The number of deaths due to circulatory system diseases was positively correlated with air pressure,PM2.5,PM10,SO2 and CO,with correlation coefficients of 0.149,0.091,0.071,0.127,and 0.105,and negatively correlated with temperature and NO2,with correlation coefficients of-0.172 and-0.152.4,respectively.In the single pollutant model,when the daily average PM2.5 concentration lags 2?3 days,for every increase of 10 ?g/m3,the ER value of the number of deaths due to circulatory system diseases was 0.13%(95%CI:0.03%-0.22%)and 0.13%(95%CI:0.03%-0.23%).In the dual pollutant model,one pollutant was used as the main pollutant to adjust other pollutants to build a dual pollutant model.The results showed that for PM2.5,after adjusting the effects of CO and O3,the ER values of PM2 5 on the number of deaths due to circulatory system diseases were 0.26%(95%CI:0.01%-0.50%)and 0.26%(95%CI:0.02%-0.49%),respectively.In the multi-pollutant model,the maximum ER value of the combination of PM2.5+PM10+NO2+SO2+CO+O3 on the number of deaths due to circulatory system diseases was 0.42%(95%CI:0.02%-0.83%).The combination of PM2.5+NO2+CO+O3,PM2.5+SO2+CO+O3 and PM2.5+CO+O3 on the death of people due to circulatory system diseases ER value the smallest were 0.28%(95%CI:0.03%-0.53%),0.28%(95%CI:0.03%-0.53%)and 0.28%(95%CI:0.02%-0.53%).5 Gender stratification results showed that when the average daily PM2.5 concentration lags 2 days,the ER value of the number of male deaths due to circulatory system diseases was 0.14%(95%CI:0.01%-0.27%)for every 10 ?g/m3 increase.When the average daily PM2.5 concentration lags 0 d,for every 10 ?g/m3 increase,the ER value of the number of female deaths due to circulatory system diseases was 0.35%(95%CI:0.09%-0.62%).6 Age stratification results showed that PM2.5 had no statistically significant effect on death of non-elderly population due to circulatory system diseases;when the average daily PM2.5 concentration lags 2 to 3 days,for every 10 ?g/m3 increase,the elderly The ER values of deaths due to circulatory system diseases were 0.14%(95%CI:0.04%-0.25%)and 0.17%(95%CI:0.07%-0.28%).Conclusions 1 The number of deaths due to circulatory system diseases are seasonal and periodic,with the most in winter and the less in summer;2 From 2014 to 2018,when the daily average PM2.5 concentration in the main urban area of Shenyang increased by 10 ?g/m3 after 2 to 3 days of lag,the number of deaths due to circulatory system diseases increased by 0.13%;3 In the dual pollutant model,PM2.5 The combination of PM2.5+CO and PM2.5+O3 has the greatest impact on the number of deaths due to diseases of the circulatory system.For every 10 ?g/m3 increase,the number of deaths due to diseases of the circulatory system increases by 0.26%;4 In a multi-pollutant model,when all pollutants combined together,it has the greatest impact on the number of deaths due to circulatory system diseases,and the deaths increases by 0.42%for every 10 ?g/m3 increase;5 Changes in the concentration of air pollutants have a greater impact on age and gender.The elderly and women are susceptible to air pollution.Figure 15;Table 22;Reference 101.