Impact Of Oil Price Change On Transport Service Stock Price And Volatility

Today,crude oil is the main energy source in the world,and it is the main driving force for the operation and development of various economic sectors in a country.The transportation service sector is one of them.For a country,the transport service sector,like its "blood",guarantees the operation and development of the country.Especially for China,which is developing rapidly and has a large population,transportation services are needed to guarantee the operation of cities,the movement of population and foreign trade activities.A review of the annual reports of transport service companies found that fuel is one of the main costs of transport services.When the price of crude oil changes,the cost of transport services will change.In the short run,the change of transportation cost will affect the profit margin of transportation service company.In the long run,the change of transportation cost will affect the stability of price level.Therefore,it is of practical meaningful to study the influence of price and its volatility between the crude oil market and the stock market of transportation service industry in China.In this paper,stock data of transportation service industry and crude oil price data from January 2007 to June 2018 were selected as research objects,and the stock data of transportation service industry were classified into four categories: air transportation,water transportation,road transportation and others.At the same time,two or three stocks are selected by category to construct Equal-Weighted portfolio and Weighted portfolio of traded market value.Through the establishment of the VAR-GARCHBEKK model.Find although there is no mean spillover effect between the stock market of transportation service industry and the crude oil market,but there is bidirectional volatility spillover effect,which indicates that in the two markets,when one market volatility,the other market also volatility.Finally,according to the empirical results of this paper and through analysis empirical result.this paper puts forward some suggestions for transport service enterprises,investors and policy makers for their reference.For transportation service enterprises,the construction of cost control system should be strengthened.Investors can refer to the conclusion of this paper to adjust the investment portfolio;For policy makers,they should strengthen the construction of domestic crude oil financial market and accelerate the marketization process of crude oil and related products.