Study On The Effects Of Socioeconomic Developments On Particulate Mater Pollution In Pearl River Delta

As one of the urban agglomerations with rapidest urbanization and economic development since the reform and opening up in China,Pearl River Delta region?PRD?achieved the win-win situation in both high-speed economic development and particulate matter pollution controls at first.This study selected Dongguan as a typical city to analyze the variations and characteristics of socioeconomic development and particulate matter pollution and clarify the law of its win-win situation.Based on this,we applied STIRPAT?Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology?model and ridge regression analysis to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between various socioeconomic factors and PM_2.5 concentration in Dongguan during the periods of 1980-2004 and 2005-2017,respectively.In addition,the scenario analysis for simulating the PM_2.5 concentration of Dongguan in the next 5years under different scenarios was also done.Lastly,the control policies for reducing particulate matter pollution in PRD and Dongguan were reviewed and evaluated.The main results can be shown as follows:?1?Under the premise of high speed economic growth,the particulate matter pollution of PRD increased at first and decreased secondly.The variation relation of economic growth and particulate matter pollution is in accordance with U shape curve of EKC?Environmental Kuznets Curve?.?2?As a typical city in PRD,the particulate matter pollution in Dongguan also increased firstly and decreased secondly meanwhile the socioeconomic factors kept growing rapidly.At different periods,the main socioeconomic driving factors of particulate matter pollution in Dongguan were different.From 1980 to 2004,the main driving factors were proportion of urban population,low grade road density,high grade road density and GDP per capita.From 2005 to 2017,the main driving factors changed into proportion of secondary industry,GDP per capita and low grade road density.?3?The structures of socioeconomic development from 1980 to 2004 could significantly increase PM_2.5 concentration while the structures from 2005 to 2017were beneficial to control or decrease the PM_2.5 concentration in Dongguan.?4?The results of scenario simulation suggested that the PM_2.5 concentration of Dongguan could decrease to 32?g/m³ in 2022 through entirely retiring all motorcycles and changed proportion of tertiary industry into 65%.?5?Some measures which were implemented in PRD and Dongguan were very effective in controlling particulate matter pollution,such as promoting the renovation of boilers,eliminating outdated industries,retiring Yellow Label vehicles and so on.