Bus Load Forecasting Based On Micro-weather And Load Transfer

Compared with the system load forecasting,the bus load forecasting has problems of small load base,many uncertain factors,and insignificant trend of load changes,and it is vulnerable to the influence of power supply and small power supply in the power supply area,resulting in easy generation of bus load and poor stability.Considering the difficulties and deficiencies in bus load forecasting,this paper proposes a bus load forecasting method that considers micro-meteorology and load transfer.The main research work is as follows:Because the effect of meteorological factors on bus load variation is not obvious,this paper fully considers the influence of meteorological factors,and proposes the calculation methods of urban heat island intensity,temperature and humidity index,and the correction method of cumulative effects;when based on the effects of these three effects alone.The correlation analysis between the modified meteorological factor and the weather sensitive load,the comprehensive consideration of these three effects,the revised calculation method to obtain the micro-meteorological information of the power supply area,and the mining and analysis of the relationship between the overall meteorological and micro-meteorology of the city and the construction of BP neural network's micro-meteorological prediction model predicts the real meteorological environment of the bus powered area,the power user,through the overall meteorological information of a city or area;the results show that considering the combined effects of the three effects in micro-meteorology can truly reflect the meteorological factors.The influence of load,the proposed meteorological factor correction method is theoretically feasible.In order to solve the problem that the power supply area is inconsistent due to the change of the topological structure of the power network caused by the implementation of load transfer,this paper proposes a method of defining the bus power supply range considering load transfer.In this method,according to the simplified topological structure diagram of the power supply area,the actual switch state quantities are recorded,and a fully connected matrix is formed by means of the switch connectivity path finding algorithm.The value of each element in the fully connected matrix is compared and analyzed to confirm the power supply of the bus.range.The example results show that this method of demarcation fully considers the impact of load transfer,and can accurately confirm the power supply range of the bus through the actual state of the switch.Taking into account the micro-meteorological factors easy to make bus load abrupt changes and load transfer to change the corresponding bus power supply range,this paper proposes a comprehensive consideration of micro-meteorology and load transfer forecasting method.This method constructs a daily feature consisting of meteorological factors,daily classification,week type and other influencing factors,calculates the similarity and confirms the similarity based on the degree of similarity,and computes several similar days and dates to be predicted using the switched connected path algorithm.Fully-connected matrix,according to the specific value of the matrix,the historical load data of similar days is processed accordingly,ensuring that the working buses on the day to be predicted and the similar days are in the same power supply range.The example shows that comprehensive consideration of micrometeorology and load transfer can significantly improve the accuracy of bus load forecasting,and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.