Simulation Study Of Subway Project PPP Financing Structure Based On System Dynamics

The construction of large volume and efficient and convenient subway can not only solve urban traffic problems,but also optimize urban space layout and drive urban development.But the metro is a huge one-off,and local finance is not sustainable.At the same time,abundant social capital is idle,difficult to be used effectively.Application on the subway project,therefore,the PPP financing model,improve the participation of social capital,dig more powerful enterprises to participate in the subway project investment,to deal with the subway project construction fund gap has important practical significance.In view of the financing structure of the subway PPP project,the basic principle of system dynamics and the research object of lanzhou metro as an empirical study are carried out,and the main research results are as follows:(1)Divide PPP financing subject,and analyze the PPP financing channels of metro projects dominated by financing entities.Further study of the PPP financing theory and value theory,and combining with the government and social capital cooperation mode operational guidelines(try out)"file,will finance main body is divided into government,social capital and financial institutions.After identifying the capital structure of PPP financing and the core elements of PPP financing structure,the financing channels dominated by various financing entities are analyzed in combination with metro projects.(2)A simulation model of PPP financing structure based on system dynamics was established.After learning based on system dynamics system and combine with the subway project PPP financing related theory knowledge,establish the target system for the different financing financing mode structure of the project company cash flow and operating condition,the influence of solvent,the project company may cover a certain period of time corresponding to the financing channels of cash flow generated by the study of the cost of financing,and choose different financing channels with the influence of different period to save the cost of financing.After define the system boundaries clear,the whole system is divided into four subsystems,the government-led financing structure subsystem respectively,dominated by Banks and the enterprise social capital financing structure subsystem,with the project company as the carrier of the market-oriented financing structure subsystem and project company operation and financial instruments solvency subsystem,considering the relationship between various factors,draw the causality diagram.On the basis of the causality diagram,the system flow diagram is drawn after taking into account the properties of variables(i.e.state variables,rate variables,auxiliary variables and constants).Set up an equation that corresponds to the actual situation.In order to determine the function of the model,the model test was carried out.(3)The financing of lanzhou metro line 1 and line 2 was simulated by simulation,and some conclusions were drawn.To the financing situation of lanzhou city metro line 1,2,as a case,combined with the existing file regulation,reference other around subway operation in our country,to determine the parameters in the model after numerical,operating model simulation,the conclusion.Conclusion can be divided into two main parts: first,analyzed the case run results,through comparing different times and different subjects of financing ability,project financing operation ability and solvency data,found that the reasonable collocation of different financing channels duration to can effectively slow down the operation period of repayment pressure.Second,by changing some parameter values for the scenario simulation of three aspects:(1)through government spending increased the simulation analysis,found that increased government subsidies,strengthening the development of land and space resources,is of great help to the project company operating,also significantly reduced operating early repayment pressure;(2)The simulation analysis of the passenger flow increases the passenger volume only,the passenger ticket revenue is increased,and the advertising revenue is increased,but the operation of the project company is not very helpful.(3)We will increase the simulation analysis of bond financing.The cost advantage of bond financing is obvious,and the use of the marketization financing tool of bonds significantly alleviates the financial pressure,and the amount of repayment required by the project company is significantly reduced.