Research On Decision-making Of Retailers Under The Background Of Electricity Retail Side Reform

In 2015,The State Council and the NDRC(National Development and Reform Commission),as well as the NEA(National Energy Administration),issued a number of documents on further deepening the reform of the power system.These documents explicitly pointed out that ‘the competitive prices would be orderly deregulated',‘the power selling market would be open to social capital and the market competitors would be cultivated by various means'.As the release of the electric selling market,many retail companies established.They need to formulate rational development strategies in the new market environment and make purchase and sell decisions under original market mechanisms such as the Spread-Rebate mechanism,the Deviation Assessment mechanism etc.The thesis,at first,summarize the overseas and domestic reform patterns of the retail side and the research actuality of the selling market decision.Based on the refinement and integration of the document On Further Deepening the Reform of the Power System,the Chinese selling market environment under the background of the new round of power system reform is analyzed in three aspects: market structure,market members and transaction type,the three major categories of retailers are modeled by SWOT theory to make the developmental strategy as well.Then,a bidding model based on a two-stage electricity market structure is presented to solve the bidding difficulties which emerging retail companies would face under the Spread-Rebate mechanism.In order to increase the market efficiency while reduce the risk of retailers,a general retailer agent,surrogate for all retailers,is modeled as the only buyer in the market who distributes the spread tariff among retailers after market clearing.In the upper stage,a bilateral Bayesian game model with asymmetric information between the generation companies and the general retailer agent is structured,whereas in the lower stage,a decision-making model with demand side elasticity for retail companies is built.The illustrative example demonstrates that by using the proposed model,the retail side participants are paid handsome dividends and no retailer has the overwhelming competitive advantage in the user side.Finally,based on the mathematical analysis of the Deviation Assessment mechanism,a retail electricity price mechanism which combines the fixed price reduction and the user enterprise load forecasting bias penalty is established,and the retail side decision model of the retailer which considers the CVa R is constructed,the simulation results verify the viability and effectiveness of the proposed method.