Research On Disaster Loss Assessment Of Dam Collapse

Since ancient times,China has been a country affected by floods.With our country's rapid economic development,a mass of large-scale dam projects were built and operated.The dam has brought many economic benefits as well as flood prevention.However,there are many risk factors in the period of reservoir operation,such as technical risk,management risk and environmental risk.If the one in one thousand chance of a dam collapse occurred,it will cause catastrophic damage to the downstream disaster areas,resulting in extremely serious economic losses and the consequences of the accident.Therefore,the risk analysis of dam engineering is very meaningful and has become an increasingly focused research field.Based on the above background,the main contents researched in this paper are as follows:(1)According to risk analysis theory,establishing a risk management system for dam collapse,determining the risk analysis process of dam collapse,clearing the mode and path of dam collapse to identify the risk factors of dam collapse,identifying the main risk factors that may cause the dam collapse.(2)In this paper,a fuzzy fault tree model is proposed to analyze the risk of dam collapse,modeling of the largest number of earth-rock dam in existence,and carry out corresponding qualitative and quantitative analysis,Calculate the occurrence probability of the top event.(3)In this paper,the HEC-RAS model in hydraulic simulation was selected to analyze the flood evolution.On this basis,the disaster losses of dam collapse are classified and studied.Combined with GIS and HEC-RAS model,the prediction of loss of life and economic loss was completed.(4)The theoretical and computational models selected in this paper are applied to the “XiaoJingGou” water conservancy project.The fault tree of dam collapse is established and risk analysis is carried out.The flood simulation was carried out for the disaster research object in “Rong” county.The application of GIS to determine the inundation area and calculate the flood area,combined with the social and economic spatial distribution of “Rong” county,the prediction of life loss and economic loss of flood disaster in the region was completed.