Research On Financial Early Warning Of Expressway Listed Companies

Highway has become the most fundamental transport way with almost 30 years construction and development.Since our country highway’s construction and operation mode,the highway listed companies have already saddled with heavy debts,also combined with China’s economic growth is slowing,highway policy is changing.Our highway listed companies are "between Scylla and Charybdis.Recently,some of the listed companies has already had the condition that their interest had decreased but the debts had increased.Meanwhile,profitability continued to weaken,expressway listed companies have exposed the trend of weakening solvency.And the consequence of weakening solvency is that companies are forced to declare bankruptcy if they cannot repay their debts.Therefore,there is no doubt that we should consider the financial crisis of the listed company and the necessity of constructing the early-warning system of financial crisis.However,there is not enough research on the financial warning of listed companies in China.This thesis reviews the relevant literature in the field of financial crisis early warning,and combines the setting up and financial characteristics of China’s expressway listed companies.This paper puts forward the thinking of financial early warning for the listed companies of Expressway from the perspective definition of the related concepts of financial early warning,the classification of financial risk of listed companies,the collection of research sample data,the selection of variable indexes and the construction of financial early warning system.First of all,based on a large number of reading literature,this paper sums up the previous research experience and selects a large number of indicators which can comprehensively reflect the operation and management status of the listed companies from 6 aspects,such as solvency,operational ability,profitability,development ability,corporate governance dimension and macro-economy.The primary index is optimized by factor analysis,and the financial early-warning model of China’s expressway listed companies is constructed by combining the optimized 22 indexes and the BP neural network with the 2013-2016 sample data of the existing expressway listed companies.In the process of building the model,this paper first determines the financial risk level of the sample enterprise,then uses the Matlab2017 randomly extracts 10 samples as the training sample constructs the BP neural network model,finally carries on the simulation test to the model’s prediction ability and the prediction accuracy rate by randomly sampled 9 test samples.The simulation results show that the expressway financial early warning model can predict the occurrence of financial crisis,and the prediction accuracy is up to 89%.Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions on the management and risk of the listed companies in China’s Expressway.