Study On Health Condition Assessment And Life Prediction Of Power Transformer

As the Condition Based Maintenance(CBM)widely used in electric power system in recent years,it’s become a important subject to be solved to juge the health condition and life prediction of power transformer scientificly and effectively.At present,there are many problems in power system,such as power transformer running time is longer and the failure rate is higher,which causes many power transformers to face overhaul or replacement.Therefore,it is a difficult problem to evaluate power transformers’ health status and life trend scientifically and reasonably in electric power system.Firstly,this paper studied the power transformer condition assessment.This paragraph build a scientific and reasonable assessment system for power transformer state of health,introducing Entropy weight Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process to evaluation system index weight on the basis of the system.and finally optimized the index weight by the Cuckoo Algorithm to make the evaluation more accurate.This paper put forward a new method to assess power transformer health condition,and achieved good results through the verification based on the actual operation data.Secondly,this paper studied technical life evaluation of power transformer.Through to research and analyze the aging mechanism of power transformers,this paper summarized the trend of power transformer’s life change.Based on the analysis of life trend,the grey system theory,which can effectively fit the trend of power transformer technology life,is introduced into the evaluation of its technical life.Then,based on the demand forecast of power transformer technology life expectancy,the GM(1,1)model in gray system theory is improved,and a technical life evaluation of power transformer based on improved Non-equal interval GM(1,1)model.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is proved by comparing with the actual operation of the power transformer.Thirdly,this paper studied the power transformer economic life from the economic perspective.This paper puts forward a new method of power transformer economic life assessment forecasting based on D-S evidence theory.When determining the economic life of power transformer,this paper proposed the end point of its economic life based on the principle of twenty-eight rule analysis.So it can provide a scientific guide for the powersystem on the power transformer replacement or technical transformation.Finally,according to actual needs,this paper write the application software platform“power transformer health assessment and life prediction system” based on the VB.The platform implements the fast computation of health assessment of power transformer,technology life evaluation,economic life prediction,providing a convenient tool for practical applications.