Research On Electricity Price Forecasting Method In Electricity Market

The deregulation of the power industry,the introduction of market mechanisms and the gradual establishment of the electricity market to optimize the allocation of resources are the general trend of deepening reform and development.Since 2015,the National Development and Reform Commission has approved the implementation of the principle of cost and profitability by the Bureau of Electricity and Power,marking the official launch of tariff reform.Studying the forecast of electricity price has far-reaching significance for improving the economic benefits of power enterprises and planning the operation of power enterprises.In view of the above environment change of the old and the new system in the electricity market,this paper combines the actual work of the author with the reform of power enterprises as the research background.First of all,it discusses the main factors that affect the electricity price in China’s power system reform and electricity market model.This paper studies the forecasting methods based on neural network and genetic algorithm,the regression analysis method and the prediction method of transmission and distribution price considering the reform of China’s electric power system under the conventional power market.The main work done in this paper includes the following aspects:(1)Firstly,the characteristics of electricity price in electricity market mode are introduced,and the impact of electricity system reform on electricity price is discussed.Finally,the main factors affecting electricity price are discussed.(2)The price forecasting method based on BP neural network forecasting method and electricity price forecasting method based on genetic algorithm are studied.Because BP neural network forecasting method has the disadvantage that it is easy to fall into local optimum,this paper proposes a neural network-based genetic algorithm Electricity price forecasting method,through the case study of the Australian electricity market,verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.(3)Studied the electricity price forecasting method based on regression analysis.Through the analysis of the historical data of the sample enterprises,the regression prediction equation is obtained based on the reliability test.Through the example analysis,we can see that the two-factor model of regression analysis has achieved good results in the long-term price forecast in one year.(4)Under the new power system reform and the principle of "allowable cost plus reasonable benefit",the electricity price forecasting method is established in the electricity market mode.The forecast method calculates the allowable income and allowable cost for the sample enterprise,and calculates the electricity price forecast according to the principle of "allowable cost plus reasonable return".