Geermu Short-term Highway Traffic Demand Forecasting And Countermeasure Research

Golmud is located in the western part of Qinghai Province,which has important geographical position.Transportation plays a significant leading role in the economic and social development of this city.Highway traffic is an important part of the transportation system.However,due to the low outset and late development of highway traffic in Golmud,the problem of “bottleneck” restriction of highway traffic is prominent.Based on these above all,we made the short-term(2020 and 2025)forecast for highway traffic of Golmud through the “four-stage” method of traffic.And TransCAD is used to simulate the generation and attraction,traffic distribution,and traffic assignment of the predicted highway traffic,and put forward recommendations based on the results.The paper first introduce the significance and value of the research,propose the research methods and technical routes,and then analyze the regional social economy and highway traffic development status in Golmud,and put forward the problems of current highway transportation of Golmud.Then,it analyzes what the forecasting demands of Golmud.Firstly,it analyzes the social and economic development of Golmud,based on this,the ARMA model and BP neural network forecasting model are used to predict the highway traffic demand respectively,and a combined forecasting model of ARMA-BP neural network is proposed to predicts both passenger traffic and freight volume.It also predicts the amount of generation and attraction of passengers and goods vehicles during peak hours of highway traffic,and use TransCAD to simulate the generation and attraction,traffic distribution and traffic assignment of predicted highway traffic.Finally,based on the predicted data,the proposal for traffic development of Golmud is proposed.It is recommended to follow the principle of prioritizing the development of urban public transportation and vigorously developing the intercity rapid passenger transportation.At the same time,it puts forward specific suggestions for the development of urban and rural passenger transportation,the development of modern logistics,the development of passenger and cargo transportation information platform,and the development of the comprehensive transportation system of Golmud.It has certain reference significance for guiding the planning and construction of highway traffic in Golmud.