Risk Assessment Of A Water Supply System Under Uncertain Random Environments

The water supply system is the important infrastructure for urban normal operation and development.However,the municipal water supply security is threatened by the vulnerability of the system itself,terrorist attacks,natural disasters or other emergencies seriously.Grasping the state of the system can help the risk management,so as to control risk and ensure the safety of water supply systems.At present,there are some deficiencies in theory and practice of risk assessment,which still need further study.Based on chance theory and uncertain random risk analysis,this dissertation builds a risk assessment model,and the assessment model is utilized to risk index calculation for a series system and a parallel system.This model can provide active and effective model preparation for emergency water supply.The main contents are as follows.On one hand,against this complex environments,sudden water pollution only affects the available water supply,and user activities are unaffected.The water demand follows certain laws.At this time,the available water supply is an uncertain variable,and the water demand is a random variable.Then this system turns into a uncertain random system.Based on uncertain random risk analysis,the risk assessment model of a water supply system under uncertain random environments is established.Beyond that,the risk index is transformed to the expected value of a random variable,and the approximate value is calculated by the quasi-Monte Carlo algorithm.On the other hand,the established risk assessment model of a water supply system under uncertain random environments is used to assess the risk of a series system and a parallel system.After that,the emergency risk index is worked out by MATLAB software.From the assessment results,it is known that multiple water sources should be developed,and the overall seismic level should be improved.The vulnerability of the water supply system should be reduced to ensure the safety of urban water supply system.The research in this paper will further improve the risk assessment method and broaden the application scope of uncertain random risk analysis.The results will provide a basis for decision making to risk assessment.