Investment Risk Assessment Of B Wind Power Project Based On Monte Carlo Simulation

Similar to other thermal power and hydropower projects,industrial wind power projects are larger in terms of investment size,construction complexity and funding requirements,and are strongly influenced by policy,environmental,tax,technology,grid and other factors,which affect initial fixed asset investment,on-grid electricity and operating costs and the future viability of the project.Policymakers,therefore,urge to take further reliable reference for investment decisions through risk analysis.This dissertation adopts Monte Carlo simulation as a tool to analyze the risky level of wind power project investment,and uses the expert assessment method to evaluate risk independent variables.The Monte Carlo simulation using CRYSTAL BALL software,based on the distribution of main risk variables,has calculated the project investment risk assessment results to provide reference for the final decision on project investment.The research results show that the risks of project investment can be evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation in more accurate level,and to overcome the disadvantages of traditional sensitivity analysis.