| Since the Belt and Road initiative was put forward,China’s foreign investment cooperation along the Belt and Road has continuously achieved new achievements and new progress,and the Belt and Road has become the new engine for foreign investment cooperation in the new era.Foreign Contracted Projects(FCP)refers to the activities of Chinese enterprises or other units contracting overseas construction projects,mainly including transportation,general construction,power engineering,etc.The business is mainly concentrated in the countries along the Belt and Road.The interconnection of infrastructure is a prerequisite for promoting the construction of the Belt and Road.The innovative concept of the Belt and Road is to start with the integration of logistics and transportation along the line,and gradually accelerate the overall economic development and industrial upgrading in the region,thus actively creating intercontinental channels and ultimately achieving regional cooperation.In this context,it is bound to expand the demand for productive and service infrastructure construction along the line,and China’s FCP companies are facing unprecedented opportunities.In addition to the traditional factors affecting location selection,Country Risk based on institutional factors has received increasing attention.In addition to some European countries,Singapore,and South Korea,the Belt and Road is dominated by emerging market countries.Its economic base is weak,its economic structure is single,its social legal system is sound and its domestic political stability is poor,and some countries have prominent domestic contradictions.Religious conflicts have occurred from time to time,and political turmoil poses a serious threat to China’s FCP.With the slow growth of the global economy,the rise of international trade protectionism,and the overall shrinkage of the international engineering market,it is necessary to take great care to prevent the risks of the countries along the Belt and Road and protect the overseas interests of China’s FCP companies.Therefore,by thoroughly studying the risk composition of the Belt and Road countries and their impact on China’s FCP,it is conducive to China’s FCP enterprises to correctly predict risks when conducting overseas contracting business,and take more targeted measures according to the situation of different countries.Provide decision-making reference for the healthy development of China’s foreign economic cooperation.This paper first sorts out the research results of the predecessors,frames the scope of the research,and determines the problems that need to be solved in this paper.Starting from the traditional trade theory and location choice theory,this paper explains the motives and investment location choices of FCP companies in China,and builds a general theoretical framework.The occurrence of foreign investment is often based on comparative advantages,and the choice of location is more considering the market,resources and other factors.The real option theory and financing constraint theory in the company’s investment theory are used to explain the location choice of FCP enterprises in China under the condition of facing national risks.Most of the existing national risk rating data are from the perspective of developed countries,and less consideration is given to home country factors.This paper builds a national risk assessment index system based on the results of ICRG and some scholars.Through ArcGIS,the spatial and temporal changes of national risk along the Belt and Road are analyzed,and the overall picture of the national time and space changes is more intuitively displayed.In addition to verifying traditional market and resource factors,this paper also focuses on the impact of national risk on China’s FCP location choice.Construct panel data of 55 samples along the Belt and Road in 2003-2017,using panel fixed effect model and dynamic system GMM model.The empirical test of the inhibition of national risk on China’s FCP investment.This paper finds that from the perspective of time evolution,the risk level of countries along the route from 2003 to 2017 has achieved a different degree of decline,and with the promotion of the Belt and Road,the risk of countries along the line has dropped significantly.From the perspective of spatial evolution,the risk of countries along the route is characterized by an intermediate high and a low at both ends from east to west and from south to north.Overall,the trend of risk improvement from the periphery centered on West Asia and South Asia,such as Iran,Afghanistan and Pakistan.Since 2003,the degree of risk agglomeration in the countries along the Belt and Road has increased,but the differentiation is more obvious,showing a small part of high agglomeration and most low and low agglomeration.The location selection of FCP enterprises in China presents the characteristics of market seeking,resource orientation and risk aversion.Further consideration of the risk preference of FCP enterprises in China for different income level samples shows that China’s FCP enterprises have a certain degree of relative risk preference in low-income countries.There is a significant negative correlation between national risk and FCP in different periods,but the risk appetite of China’s FCP enterprises has decreased after the the Belt and Road initiative.Finally,this paper proposes to establish the Belt and Road national risk early warning platform,so that enterprises can identify various risks in the investment process,select appropriate investment strategies,establish regional regional coordination mechanisms along the Belt and Road,and guide China’s foreign contracting with a global perspective.Engineering investment. |
