Study On Traffic Flow Modeling And Traffic Flow Complex Characteristics Considering Multi-car Expectation Effect

In recent years,traffic congestion and other issues have become a contradiction that the current society urgently needs to solve.The generation of traffic congestion not only increases energy consumption,but also causes serious environmental pollution,and has gradually become an important factor restricting the development of China’s urban social economy and ecological environment.Therefore,accelerating the theoretical study of traffic flow has important theoretical and practical significance for improving the level of road traffic services and solving traffic congestion.Based on the MCD model,this thesis analyzes the driver’s expected effect(pre-estimation effect and dynamic information feedback),establishes the corresponding improved brake light model,and carries out corresponding simulation analysis.Which not only has certain theoretical significance,but also has certain practical application value.The main work of this thesis is as follows:(1)Based on the MCD model,considering the influence of the pre-estimation effect of the brake lights on the acceleration,deceleration and randomization of the vehicle,an improved model considering the pre-estimation effect of the brake lights is established and simulated.The model improves the acceleration,deceleration and randomization of the MCD model,so that the rules of action between vehicles are more in line with the actual driving behavior.The basic graph,space-time graph and flow interruption effect graph obtained by simulation show that the results are consistent with the traffic test results and are consistent with the three-phase flow theory.(2)Based on the improved brake cellular automaton model,the average speed feedback strategy is used to improve the pre-estimated brake lamp model,so that the model has the speed feedback effect and simulates.The simulation results show that the simulation results of the improved model are consistent with the three-phase flow theory.By comparing the vehicle trajectory and speed disturbance analysis,it can be found that dynamic information feedback can accelerate the dissipation of deceleration waves on the road.This shows that dynamic information feedback is very effective in maintaining the stability of the traffic flow and keeping the traffic flow on the road constant.It can reduce the speed disturbance caused by the driver’s own factors and reduce the occurrence of traffic accidents.(3)Based on the simulation results,the detrended fluctuation analysis(DFA)method is used to analyze the MCD model and improve the various phases of the brake light model.The results show that the synchronized flow time series of the MCD model and the improved brake light model exhibit complex long-range correlation characteristics,but the pre-estimation effect improved brake light model and the dynamic information feedback improved brake light model have a DFA result close to 1 in the light synchronized flow state.The 1/f noise is presented,and the DFA result in the resynchronized stream state is less than0.5,and the light synchronized stream and the resynchronized stream cannot be clearly distinguished in the MCD model.