Research On Theory And Method Of Medium And Long-Term Electric Trading Decisions For Large Power Users

The reform of electric power market is the necessary way to promote the development of the power industry.In 2015,the Several Opinions on Further Deepening the Reform of the Power System and the release of its six supporting documents marked the beginning of a new round of power system reform.At the end of 2016,the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the Basic Rules for Medium-and Long-Term Electricity Trading(Provisional).The medium-and long-term trading rules of electricity clarified the market position of power users.Since some power users do not directly deal with power generation companies,but sign contracts with electric retailers,this paper proposes the concept of large users to refer to power users who directly deal with power generation companies.The marketization mechanism is conducive to recovering the attributes of electric power products,reducing the cost of electricity for users,and improving the efficiency of resource allocation.However,it also leads to an increase in the risk of fluctuations in electricity prices.The bias assessment mechanism introduced on the electricity purchase side requires large users to accurately predict their own electricity consumption demand.Therefore,this round of power reform poses a new challenge to how many and how much power users should buy in market.It is important and realistic to study the purchasing decisions of large users based on medium and long-term trading rules to guide them to reduce production costs and operational risks.This paper adopts the combination of theoretical research and case verification.Firstly,it combs the domestic and international power market risk theory and power purchase decision-making method from the theoretical point of view,explains the basic concepts and types of power risk,and summarizes the large user decision-making methods and large User purchase pricing strategy.From the actual level,it analyzes the external environment on which large users participate in electricity market-based trading and taking the steel industry as an example,it analyzes the impact of the big environment on the industry such as supply-side reform and production restriction policy due to protecting environment and the Belt and Road construction from the macro level,industry level and competitive relationship level.And then considering the characteristics of electricity consumption,cost composition,electricity price tolerance,and the impact of participation in medium and long-term transactions on the steel industry,it is concluded the reduction of electricity costs is an urgent need of the steel industry and the electricity market has created conditions for the steel industry to reduce costs and increase profits.So it is an inevitable choice for large users to formulate scientific and feasible power purchase decisions based on medium and long-term trading rules.On this basis,the idea of power purchase decision for large users is proposed,and the optimal annual transaction power purchase model and the optimal monthly transaction model are constructed and the example is used to verify the upgrade service fee has a positive effect and downgrade service fee has a negative effect on the optimal amount in the annual transaction model.At the same time,in the monthly transaction,the upgrade service fee and the annual contract price have a positive effect on optimal amount of electricity,and the downgrade service fee and the monthly contract price have a negative effect on the optimal amount.Aiming at the centralized bidding mechanism and the bilateral negotiation mechanism,the large user quotation interval model and the generator and large user game model are proposed respectively.On the one hand,the ideas of the concentrated bidding quotation strategy and the main factors affecting the quotation are analyzed,and the large user quotation interval and the effective boundary are proposed.So the a complete large user quotation interval model is formed.On the other hand,the process of power producers and large users under the bilateral negotiation mechanism is divided into two stages and the power supplier and large user quotation model and the power producer and large user bargaining model are proposed respectively.In the models,the utility maximization of power producers and large users is taken as the planning goal.In the end,he feasibility of the model equilibrium solution is verified by an example and results show that the information The degree of mastery of information will affect the efficiency and effectiveness of bilateral negotiations.