Economic Analysis Of Renewable Generation Under The Condition Of Marketization

Environmental problems caused by extensive use of fossil fuels have become increasingly urgent.A consensus is to vigorously develop clean renewables.Lately,the government has attached great importance to the development of renewables,and with the joint effort of the whole society,renewable energy is growing fast with a series of problems at the same time,such as serious wind and solar power curtailment,lag of subsidies,and high risk for plants to cover costs,etc.All these matters above call for relevant policies.And evaluating the economy of renewables scientifically is the basis of reasonable policymaking.In order to promote the development of renewables under the background of power system reform,this paper assesses the economy of renewable electricity generation under the condition of marketization,enriching related research and providing reference for the government to formulate relevant policies and measures.The thesis constructs the electricity market clearing model using merit order stack,according to the principle of incremental short-term marginal cost and unit commitment.Then an economic evaluation system of generation resources under the condition of marketization is constructed based on existing research.The high coal price and low coal price scenario are respectively set with the upper and lower bound of the electricity coal price index of Guangdong province in 2017.The economic performance of wind and solar power in Guangdong under the above two scenarios is appraised in line with its historical data on load,installed capacity and output of wind and solar power.Then the relationship between economy of wind and solar power and load of Guangdong is analyzed using Monte Carlo simulation.Inaddition,the counterfactual simulation which assumes that load of Guangdong increases by 0.1 times is conducted and the impact of load increase on the economy of wind and solar power is assessed.The study draws the following conclusions:(1)Auction mechanism based on marginal cost will lower electricity prices,leading to poor economy of renewable generation.Wind power is more economical than solar power in electricity market,and the output of them are complementary.(2)The economy of renewables under the condition of marketization is closely related to coal prices and load.(3)In genenral,changes in wind or solar power output will negatively affect the economy of solar or wind power.It's not always the case in low-load seasons like spring,autumn and winter.This paper suggests implementing the following policies to stimulate renewable electricity generation in power market:(1)Reduce the cost of renewable energy generation and improve its economy.(2)Take unit marginal cost into account,and introduce bidding mechnism gradually to promote renewable accommodation.(3)Achieve transition from feed-in tariff to feed-in premium in market conditions.(4)Accelerate and perfect the process of carbon trading.