Optimal Configuration Method Of Energy Storage Based On Probability Prediction Of The Photovoltaic Output Power

Energy storage technology is part of the key technologies to realize high permeability renewable energy grid connection.In order to solve the problem of energy storage configuration in the scenario of tracking the plan of the PV output power,most studies directly bring the point predicted value of the PV output power into the calculation of the problem of energy storage configuration,which results in excessive energy storage capacity.In order to address this problem,this paper presents an optimal sizing method of energy storage based on probability prediction of the PV output power.This method models the relationship between the predicted value and the actual value of the PV output power based on probability prediction method of the PV output power.Based on the probability prediction results of the PV output power obtained by this model,more accurate point estimates are obtained and the point estimates are used as the calculation data of optimal sizing of energy storage to optimize the configuration results.The main contents and innovations of this paper are summarized as follows:(1)The method of probability prediction of the PV output power based on Copula theory(PPP-Copula)is studied.By using this method,the correlation between the predicted value and the actual value of the PV output power is modeled.Models in different dimensions are built.The numerical example shows that the prediction model under three-dimensional scenario is slightly better than that under two-dimensional scenario.(2)The probability prediction method of the PV output power based on GRU network and Quantile regression theory(PPP-QR-GRU)is studied.The method is compared with the method of PPP-Copula.It can be concluded from the calculation example that the prediction effect of the two methods is not much different,but the method of PPP-QR-GRU has better universality.(3)The optimal configuration model of energy storage based on the above two probabilistic prediction methods is established.The precise method is to take the PV output power which has maximum probability density as the point estimats of the PV output power and use this point estimats as the calculation data of optimal configuration of energy storage.The proposed method is validated by example calculation and analysis.From the analysis of the configuration results,it can be seen that the configuration results obtain by the method in this paper has the better economy than the traditional method.