Research On Coordinated Planning Of New Energy And Conventional Energy Based On Probabilistic Production Simulation

In recent years,with requirements of social development and supports of national policies,new energy such as wind power and photovoltaics has gradually become the main type of energy in power industry of China.However,since the system lacks reasonable and orderly overall-planning,and the flexibility is relatively scarce.Frequent occurrences of ‘wind curtailment',‘light curtailment' and ‘water curtailment' have restricted the further development of new energy and the rational transformation of energy structure.In order to improve the problem of new energy consumption,the fundamental measure is to increase the installed capacity of flexible units in the system enhancing the adjustment ability,such as gas turbine and oil turbine.However,considering the period and cost of construction,the method cannot effectively alleviate the ‘curtailment and constriction' of new energy in the short term.By rationally configuring the limited peak-regulation resources and reserve capacity in the system,operating flexibility of the system will be improved,and then the goal of coordinated planning of new energy and conventional energy is achieved.It is an expedient measure to increase the consumption of new energy.Based on the above ideas,in this paper,Probabilistic Production Simulation Algorithm(PPSA)is used to establish a complete simulation model of system operation,and an evaluation system is built,it includes economic,reliability and peak-regulation performance.The evaluation system provides basis for subsequent optimization studies,including access amount of new energy and capacity of peak-regulation and spinning reserve.PPSA is the core of this project,and it is designed based on the convolution principle of the Equivalent Electricity Function method.In the PPSA,the multi-state unit models of new energy are introduced using Weibull and Beta distribution,and they reflect the randomness and volatility of new energy generating.Besides,the PPSA covers the production simulation models of thermal power,hydropower,gas and pumped storage etc.Among them,the model of thermal power is specially improved.The definition and calculation methods of two peak-regulation performance indices are proposed—LORCP and ERENS.Combined with the reliability indices LOLP and EENS,and the economic quantitative model,a new evaluation system is proposed.In addition,the processed idea and method of spinning reserve and shut-down reserve are also mentioned.After completing the design of PPSA,the accuracy and rationality are verified firstly,with IEEE RTS-86.Then the coordinated planning of new energy and conventional energy is studied with the tool.To a system under certain state,the reasonable access amount and complementarity of wind and photovoltaic are discussed.And the influences of different types of new energy on system reliability and peak-regulation performance are compared.In the condition of large-scale new energy access with certain capacity,the holistic and time-division planning methods of peak-regulation resources and reserve capacity are explored with deep peak-regulation of thermal power and reserve rate of system as adjustment means.The purpose is to achieve optimal economic performance under the premise of satisfying reliability and peak-regulation performance.Taking the improved IEEE RTS-86 as an example,the effectiveness of the proposed model and method is verified while studying the influences of new energy on the system operation,offering guide and assist to the planning,design and scheduling of power system.