Research On Real-time Prediciton And Dynamic Generation Of Aircraft 4D Trajectory

After decades of rapid development,the number of transported passengers,aircraft holdings and airports of China civil aviation has been significantly increased,and the number of large and mediumsize airports with throughout exceeding 10 million is also increasing.However,due to the limited spacetime resources,terminal airspace congestion,serious flight delays and other problems occur frequently.Faced with these difficulties,the implementation of trajectory based operation concept and the upgrading of air traffic control automation equipment are extremely urgent,while the above operation concept and technical means are inseparable from the 4D trajectory management of aircraft.Therefore,this paper intends to deeply study the generation,prediction and optimization of 4D trajectory,in order to lay a foundation for 4D trajectory management.Firstly,this paper elaborates the general flow of aircraft trajectory generation,in-depth analyzes the point-mass model,the performance model,the meteorological model and intention model in the generation process,studies the navigation modes and implementation mothods of horizontal path and vertical profile respectively,sets up the aircraft vertical intention of level-step and continuous descent operations,the simulation results show that the method proposed in this paper is accurate for generating initial trajectory.Secondly,put forward the aircraft online 4D trajectory prediction method,which obtaion the real-time aircraft information and monitor the deviation between actual and predicted trajectories,the flight intent will be updated and trajectory will be forecasted again when the deviation cxceeds the threshold,the online prediton can better capture aircraft intentions and improve the prediction accuracy.Thirdly,studies the trajectory optimization based on arrival time,in which the horizontal route determines the arrival time window and the vertical profile determines the accurate time,the simulation indicates that this method is able to design the comprehensive route within the time threshold in level-step and plan the conflict-free route in continuous descent.Finally,develops several tools including trajectory initial generation,online prediction and dynamic optimization based on QT platform and C++ programming language,verifies the trajectory support module in AMAN prototype system,the results shows that this module has great capability of trajectory planning and can meet the operational requirements of AMAN.