Study On The Influence Of Unintentional Flight Paths On Air Traffic In Ocean Areas

In recent years,a large number of extra-regional reconnaissance aircraft have appeared in the Sanya-controlled area of the ocean.In order to study its impact on civil aircraft on the ocean route,the use of measured historical radar trajectory data is a feature that is more comprehensive in assessing the safety of civil aircraft flying on the route.A feasible approach.Firstly,aiming at the incompleteness of the unintentional flight trajectory data,an unintentional flight trajectory splicing model is constructed,and the validity of the trajectory splicing is verified by the information distance method.Secondly,the statistical unintentional flight trajectory to the route distance distribution function and the standard deviation function are combined to construct a joint probability density function.From the overall statistical analysis,an unintentional flight trajectory flies out different intent patterns,and the joint probability distribution from the trajectory point to the route distance Come to the needle for its overall flight characteristics.Thirdly,the AR model is used to fuse multiple heading difference historical data,and the estimated value of the heading change at the next moment is given.Based on the naive Bayes classifier method,the possible conditions of the next time heading(left turn,straight or right turn)are predicted..Based on the prediction of the unintentional aircraft heading at the next moment,the Bayes model establishes a prediction model for the probability of the unintentional flight path to the route.Finally,the Bayesian network-based route influence factor model is constructed to analyze its influence on the route.The future trend of the ship is inferred by the trajectory intention prediction method,and the impact index of a certain flight on a certain route is quantified: influence probability and influence.duration.This paper analyzes the influence of the unintentional flight trajectory on the whole and the individual on the route from different angles of statistical methods and intention prediction.Finally,the degree of impact of civil aircraft is quantified by influencing the probability and impact time,and a comprehensive assessment of the impact of unintentional flight trajectories on air traffic in the ocean area is achieved...