Dynamic Configuration Of Hybrid Energy Storage For Wind Power Forecast And Forecast Error Estimation

In recent years,wind power generation has become more and more popular around the world.As a clean energy source,it is of great significance in relieving the tense energy situation and the pollution of traditional energy to the ecological environment.As an uncertain energy source,its inherent randomness and volatility will inevitably have a certain impact on the dispatching and safe and stable operation of the power grid.The acceptance of large-scale wind power has become the development direction of the future power grid.Wind power forecast and configuration of energy storage systems have become the two major priorities in research.In this paper,the existing wind power forecast methods,forecast error estimation methods and configuration of energy storage system are analyzed and summarized in detail.In order to eliminate the influence of different power level sample data on wind power forecast,a wind power forecast method based on GA-BP neural network with power classification is proposed.The wind power data is classified by support vector machine,and various wind power data are respectively put into their respective neural networks for training,and the wind power forecast model is obtained.The effectiveness of the method is verified by wind power data published by the Irish Power Grid.In order to evaluate the forecast results,a wind power forecast error estimation method based on eigenvalue extraction is proposed.The method extracts the eigenvalues including the wind power fluctuation characteristic index related to the forecast error obtained by the direct data processing method,the wind power random characteristic index of high frequency band based on the rough set theory and the wavelet decomposition.The eigenvalues are used as input and the error is used as output to establish a model to estimate forecast error.By comparing with some existing methods,the method can obtain the most accurate error estimation results in the smallest interval.The wind power random characteristic index of high frequency band based on the rough set theory and the wavelet decomposition makes the details of the curve accurately grasp and the forecast accuracy is improved.The error is proposed to distinguish the positive and negative of the error,the error estimation interval is more accurate and the economy,safety and stability of the power grid arestronger.The wind power forecast value and the forecast error estimation value are superimposed as the final forecast estimation value and the actual value.By configuring the energy storage,the difference between the actual value and the forecast value can be removed.Due to the slow charging and discharging speed,the low cost of the battery and the fast charging and discharging speed,the large capacity of the super capacitor,the probability distribution of the forecast error estimation value is used to obtain the confidence interval,and the battery is used for compensation within the confidence interval and the super capacitor is used for compensation outside the confidence interval for dynamic configuration of hybrid energy storage system on power generation side.In order to meet the requirements of the State Grid Corporation for short-term wind power forecast error of less than or equal to 20% and for wind power fluctuations of ten minutes less than or equal to33% of wind power installed capacity,the energy storage system configured by the wind farm will remove the difference between the actual value and the forecast value on the basis of smoothing the fluctuation of wind power.Based on the wind power data published by the Irish Power Grid,dynamic configuration of hybrid energy storage system on power generation side is analyzed.The effectiveness of the method is verified,and the difference between the actual value and the forecast value is removed on the basis of smoothing the fluctuation of the wind power,which can provide valuable reference for the staff to dispatch the wind power system.To a certain extent,the safety and stability of the power system has been effectively guaranteed.Since the dynamic configuration of hybrid energy storage on power generation side involves many factors,the author will conduct further research on its specific implementation process in the future.In addition,this paper studies on the basis of wind power,how to promote it to other new energy fields remains to be explored.