Typhoon Disaster And Resilience Of Regional Power Grid

China is one of the most seriously affected countries by typhoon in the world.Strong winds,rainstorms,storm surges and floods and other disasters caused by typhoon will trigger huge losses.As a part of the power system,the power grid is an indispensable key infrastructure to ensure the normal operation of modern society,and the regional power grid is generally overhead lines,compared with the ultra-high voltage power grid design wind speed is smaller,affected by the typhoon.When typhoon passes through the country,the transmission line of regional power grid will trip,and when it passes through the country,it will lead to a large-scale blackout accident of full stop of the inverted pole and inclined pole and substation.Therefore,the anti wind design,disaster risk management,insurance and reinsurance industry all need to attach great importance to typhoon.However,due to the uncertainty of time and space,it is difficult to quantify the risk of typhoon.Based on the historical meteorological observation data and disaster data,this paper forecasts the probability of future small probability high risk events through probability analysis.This paper mainly analyzes the risk of typhoon,vulnerability of power grid and typhoon risk of power grid.Combined with the economic loss,recovery time and other factors of power grid under the wind disaster,it evaluates the resilience of power grid under the wind disaster,and then puts forward effective measures to improve the resilience of power grid.The main contents of this paper are as follows:1.Case studies are carried out to show that typhoons occur frequently and cause great economic losses,and to summarize the regions and months where the wind occurs frequently.Through the correlation analysis,the meteorological characteristic parameters which have great influence on the disaster bearing body are determined.2.Based on the maximum annual extreme wind speed of several meteorological stations in Guangdong Province and Gumbel probability distribution,the risk of typhoon in each meteorological station in Guangdong Province is obtained,and compared with the basic wind pressure in the current specifications and the risk zoning map of typhoon wind field obtained by numerical simulation,the correctness of the results is verified.By using Poisson Gumbel probability distribution,the risk of typhoon in Guangdong Province is obtained.3.From the macro point of view and the actual situation,for the power grid within the influence scope of typhoon,combined with the basic information questionnaire of power grid,adjust the design wind speed to form the judgment wind speed.By judging the wind speed and the maximum wind speed in the whole process of the region,the failure probability of regional power grid,namely vulnerability,is determined.4.There are three methods to evaluate the typhoon risk of power grid,which are disaster analysis,reliability and risk management.In the case of sufficient disaster data,it is the most objective method to evaluate the risk of typhoon from the perspective of data analysis.However,due to the difficulties in collecting relevant data,the latter two methods are mainly used in this paper.One is to analyze the typhoon risk of power grid from the perspective of reliability.Combined with the risk of typhoon,the vulnerability of power grid and the severity of the accident,the possibility and consequences of the accident are analyzed from the perspective of conditional probability.The second is to evaluate the risk of power grid from the perspective of risk management,using the analytic hierarchy process to evaluate the capacity of power grid in all aspects under the effect of typhoon.5.By introducing the concept of "resilience",the resilience of power grid is divided into two parts:resilience assessment,resilience design and planning.In the aspect of resilience assessment,it is considered that resilience is mainly a function of economic loss,recovery time and typhoon risk of power grid.In the aspect of toughness design and planning,firstly,compare the difference between the traditional design based on"risk" and the design based on "toughness" in design process,daily maintenance and failure mode.Finally,the method of improving the resilience of power grid is proposed,which provides the theoretical basis for the work of wind resistance and disaster reduction of power grid.