Research On Prediction Method Of Remaining Service Life Of Slope Of Water Diversion Project Based On Wiener Process

As an important part of the water diversion,the slope has a significant impact on the safe operation of the diversion project,and the later maintenance has the characteristics of long time,high cost and difficulty.Therefore,in order to ensure the safe operation of the diversion project,that should carry out safety monitoring and prediction of remaining service life for the important slope,early warning,it’s significant to reduce or avoid the major accidents happened,such as direct and indirect economic losses,casualties and so on.Based on the safety monitoring data of the diversion project slope,this paper studies the application of the remaining service life theory in the diversion project slope.At first,this paper introduces the theory of the remaining life of the slope.According to the damage characteristics of the slope,the basic principle of damage mechanics is used to calculate the early warning value of the displacement of the slope,and using this value warning as the threshold of the Wiener process.Using the methods of maximum likelihood estimation to determine the unknown parameters of the model,build the Wiener process model,use this model can predict the remaining service life of the water diversion slope.Then,considering the randomness of the operation and use of the slope,a random effect Wiener process model is constructed to predict the remaining life of the water diversion slope,and used the Bayes update method to obtain new measured data,the advantage is fast and convenient.The random parameters are updated to accurately predict the remaining service life of the water diversion slope.Finally,based on the safety monitoring data of the water diversion slope,the BP neural network algorithm is used to predict the displacement of the water diversion project slope.The predicted value of the neural network is brought into the Wiener process and the random effect Wiener process,to calculate the remaining service life of the water diversion slope;The Bayesian method is used to update the parameters,and the rapid estimation of the remaining life of the slope,that considering the subsequent displacement prediction value,and the subsequent change law of the remaining life of the slope is obtained,thus providing a certain reference value about maintenance and reinforcement management for the project.