Modeling And Life Prediction Of Railway Freight Car Wheel Degradation Based On Stochastic Process

China's current railway vehicle maintenance system is changing from planned preventive maintenance to technical maintenance.Planned preventive maintenance is to determine a reasonable maintenance cycle structure and maintenance cycle according to the damage rule and service period of the main parts of the vehicle,and repair the vehicle before the failure,so as to eliminate the defects and hidden dangers of the parts of the vehicle and prevent the failure of the vehicle.With the continuous development of casting technology,the reliability of parts of railway wagon to improve gradually,now planned preventive maintenance of the railway truck detection monitoring data with inadequate,information system data sharing is not smooth,railway vehicle repair information between applications and problems such as mismatch repair system,led to the main components of railway wagon "excessive" repaired with the life cycle,spare parts maintenance cycle and maintenance base construction and the problem of high maintenance costs.In order to solve these problems,save costs and improve maintenance efficiency,this paper takes the wheelset diameter and tread as the research object,studies the degradation modeling and multi-dimensional life prediction of railway vehicle wheels based on stochastic process,and mainly conducts the following research work:First,scene induction and data cleaning were performed on the collected data to improve the quality of the data.The main forms of wheel degradation were understood through FMEA analysis,and the appropriate random process was selected for modeling through the analysis of data characteristics,degradation mechanism and requirements.Secondly,the established degradation model was verified.Taking the wheelset diameter data of the experimental series as an example,the maximum likelihood estimation was used for parameter solution and data simulation.The feasibility of the degradation model was verified by comparing the obtained parameters and simulation data,which laid a foundation for the subsequent multi-dimensional life prediction.Lastly,the life prediction of wheel-to-wheel diameter and tread wear is carried out.According to the maintenance standard,the life prediction of wheel pair salutation and tread wear is integrated to obtain the warning life,buckle repair life and replacement life of the whole wheel.Provide guidance for future maintenance strategy formulation.