Study On Operational Economic Optimization Of Virtual Power Plant With Park Distributed Energy Resources Considering Uncertainties Of Wind-photovoltaic Power And Demand

At present,with the increasingly serious environmental problems and the depletion of primary energy,renewable energy has begun to be widely used due to its convenience and environmental friendliness,where wind power and photovoltaic power generations are widly used.However,due to the strong randomness and volatility of wind speed and photovoltaic intensity,which have caused great obstacles to the large-scale access of renewable energy to the grid.In addition,due to the huge demand for electrical and thermal demand in winter in China,the uncertainty of the demand for electrothermal coupling also poses a great challenge to the operation of the system.In order to promote the large-scale grid-connected utilization of renewable energy,this thesis analyzes the uncertainties that may occur in the process of grid connection of renewable energy from the supply side and demand side,and discusses the operational economic optimization of Virtual Power Plant in the park on this basis.Firstly,from the supply side,this thesis introduces the traditional wind and PV power output prediction models.On this basis,this thesis considers the time series characteristics of wind and PV power output and uses dynamic parameters to improve Latin Hypercube Sampling.Secondly,from the demand side,this thesis predicts the electrical load and heat load by the improved algorithm and proposes the evaluation system based on the effect of “peak shaving and valley filling”.And this thesis analyses the social welfare improvement.Finally,this thesis combines supply and demand data with park distributed energy generators to construct a multi-energy system and discusses the optimal operation stretagy.The results of the example show that the proposed prediction method is effective in certain scenarios in north China without extreme weather conditions.It increases the accuracy of the simulations and significantly reduces the residuals.On the demand side,the effect of the demand response on the electrical load is better than the heat load.In addition,the demand response is related to the improvement of social welfare.After introducing the heat storage devices and the demand response,the multi-energy system shows a good collaborative optimization effect.Moreover,the capacity setting of the energy storage devices can also achieve the goal of optimizing system operation.This thesis provides some reference for the construction of electrothermal coupling Virtual Power Plant in the park.