High Speed Rail Opening,information Environment And Analyst Forecast Accuracy

Since 2008,China has vigorously promoted infrastructure construction,and the country’s high-speed railway construction has developed rapidly.As of the end of 2017,the operating mileage of high-speed railways reached 25,000 kilometers(2017 Railway Statistics Bulletin),ranking first in the world.China has preliminarily built the "four vertical and four horizontal" high-speed rail trunk structure,and is currently moving towards the perfect goal of "eight vertical and eight horizontal".After the opening of the high-speed rail,it has greatly compressed the space-time distance,playing a significant role in promoting economic development at the macro level,promoting the flow of talents and factors,and speeding up urban construction.From a micro-level perspective,it also has varying degrees of impact on population distribution,real estate prices along the route,and corporate investment.On the other hand,in the capital market,information has always played an important role,information asymmetry will cause problems in resource allocation,which will affect the effective operation of the capital market.As an important intermediary between investors and listed companies,analysts play an increasingly important role in the capital market.Analysts collect information on listed companies,and process the information according to their professional knowledge and industry experience to make profit forecasts and guide investment decisions in the capital market.There are two types of sources for analysts to obtain information,one is publicly disclosed information by listed companies,and the other is private information obtained through research,interviews,or other methods.In reality,there are many difficulties for analysts to obtain private information of listed companies,such as social environmental factors and geographical factors,which increases the difficulty and cost of obtaining information,and has an impact on the analysts’ prediction results.Based on the review of previous research literature,this article focuses on the impact of high-speed rail opening at the micro level of the capital market,taking geographic distance and information environment as the transmission path,combining information asymmetry theory and effective market theory,to study the impact of high-speed rail opening on analysts’ forecasting influences.In order to supplement the research on the economic consequences of high-speed rail construction at the micro level,and the impact mechanism on analysts’ forecasting behavior.This article focuses on the impact of HSR opening at the micro level of the capital market and uses the information environment as a transmission path to study the impact of HSR opening on analysts’ predictive behavior.The study found that the high-speed railway can improve the accuracy of analysts’ profit forecasts.It is further confirmed that this result can be achieved through the on-site analysis of analysts and the mediating effect of increased media coverage.When the internal information environment of the enterprise is better,the opening of the high-speed rail has a more significant role in improving the analysts’ forecasts.In addition,it was found that the aircraft has a certain degree of substitution for high-speed rail.After distinguishing between different regions,it is found that analysts have a “local advantage”,and the impact of the opening of high-speed rail on analysts ’forecasts is even more pronounced in the Midwest.Through careful research on the internal and external information environment of the enterprise,this article finds the internal mechanism of the high-speed rail effect on the capital market.The research results may be complementary to the research on the economic consequences of high-speed rail construction at the micro level and the impact mechanism of analysts ’forecasting behavior.