Research On Delay Distribution And Propagation Model Of High-Speed Railway Train

Compared with other modes of transportation,China’s high-speed railway is favored by many passengers on medium and long distances due to its advantages of high speed,high safety,high comfort,and all-weather operation.In recent years,under the trend of increasing medium and long-distance passenger flow,in order to meet the needs of passenger transportation,the density of high-speed railway trains is increasing.Under such circumstances,the disadvantages of high-density train operation are gradually revealed,that is,when the train is affected by interference factors such as mechanical failures in the transportation system,external environment,high-speed railway operation organization management,and interaction between trains,etc.Inevitably,train delays will occur,and delays will spread quickly on the line,and subsequent trains will be affected in a relatively short time.On a busy trunk line,if the delay propagation cannot be effectively controlled,it will cause large-scale secondary delays,affect the normal operation of the high-speed line,and have a great negative impact on the operation of high-speed railways with high timeliness requirements.Therefore,the thesis is guided by the interference factors that affect the normal operation of high-speed trains,based on the actual data of train operation performance,an in-depth study on the delay propagation of high-speed trains is carried out.The main research contents are as follows:(1)An overview of the content of high-speed railway train delays,elaborating on the concept of high-speed railway train delays,the causes of train delays,and types of delays.(2)Based on the analysis of the statistical indicators of the delay in the interval operation,and based on the cause of the train delay,the rule of the delay of different types of high-speed railway trains was studied.For the primary delay,the mechanism of the distribution of the primary delay time of high-speed trains is studied by using the super-statistics theory,and the q-exponential distribution model of the distribution of the primary delay is constructed.As for the secondary delay,the possibility of the interaction between the exiting workshops can be analyzed from the actual performance data of high-speed trains,and the structure of the delay propagation of secondary trains is further analyzed,which lays a foundation for the construction of the delay propagation model.(3)In view of the disease propagation model and the characteristics of delay propagation on high-speed railways,based on the mechanism of delay propagation and absorption of trains,referring to the classic SIS infectious disease model,a train delay propagation model including the train departure/access delay,primary delay,and secondary delay sources was established,which can reproduce the dynamic propagation process and evolution of train delay on the line.(4)Taking the train operation performance data of high-speed railway in Shanhaiguan-Fuyu North Station as an example,for the modeling method of the delay distribution of high-speed railway trains and the delay propagation of high-speed railway trains based on the cause of delay,the fitting effect of the delay distribution model and the prediction effect of the delay propagation model are verified.The verification results indicate that q-The exponential distribution model fits the primary delay distribution model of high-speed railway trains,which has a better fitting effect;the high-speed railway train delay propagation model predicts that the train arrival delay distribution is in good agreement with the actual train delay distribution.