Study On The Assets Evaluation Of Hydropower Station Based On Improved Income Method

Hydropower is a clean,high-quality and renewable energy,and it is the main energy developed by China's power industry at present and in the future.With the implementation and development of China's 13 th five-year plan,the requirements for survival and environmental protection are increasingly improved,and the optimization and adjustment of hydropower management system and structure are increasingly strengthened.While actively developing hydropower resources,the state and local enterprises are actively adjusting their hydropower energy development strategies and speeding up the optimization and rectification of hydropower resources.As the property right transaction of hydropower assets becomes more and more frequent,a scientific and reasonable evaluation of the output value of hydropower stations can provide a basis for hydropower enterprises to trade in the capital market,further rationally utilize hydropower resources,and make hydropower resources give full play to their maximum utilization value.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the asset evaluation of hydropower station.In view of the integrity,profitability and complexity of hydropower stations,this paper adopts the improved income method to evaluate the overall assets of hydropower stations.Compared to traditional income method under the free cash flow model,this paper established a dynamic free cash flow model,using scientific and rational grey markov prediction method instead of the subjective judgment than a single linear growth method to predict hydropower station in the future forecast period of free cash flow,and is considering dynamic discount rate under the change of capital structure,so as to improve the authenticity and reliability of the evaluation results.Assets evaluation in the process of hydropower station under considering the income method itself facing the uncertainty in the process and parameters of uncertainty,this paper introduce the monte carlo simulation method,the free cash flow model of free cash flow and discount rate as a random variable,a large number of random simulation,so as to minimize the uncertainty of hydropower assets assessment value to determine the influence of,finally the assessment result to contain uncertainty and volatility in the process of enterprise operation and satisfy a certain confidence level evaluation value of interval.Compared with the single comment valuation,the interval value has more elastic space and is closer to the actual operation and asset value of the enterprise,which can provide reference for the operation of the enterprise and the investment decision of investors.