Profitability-risk Analysis For Autonomous Ships And The Reshaping Of Shipping Industry

The shipping industry is experiencing a long-term market downturn.In addition,the environmental protection requirements of the shipping industry are becoming increasingly stringent,resulting in the increased investment and operating costs of shipping companies.The concept of autonomous ships,or widely known as unmanned ships has emerged in this context.At the same time,unmanned cargo ships also bring three core questions: 1)Why should the shipping industry adopt unmanned ships? 2)Do the unmanned ships have commercial value and application possibilities? 3)How will unmanned ships reshape the future of shipping industry?This thesis uses qualitative and quantitative analysis to explain and demonstrate the above questions.Firstly,this thesis qualitatively illustrates the driving force of unmanned ships application from the intensified competetion in the shipping market,navigation safety,costs,and seafarer occupational characteristics.Secondly,this thesis quantitatively analyzes the cost and benefit of unmanned ships in the form of case study.In this case,the unmanned Capesize bulk carrier is studied,and the cost accounting model and cash flow analysis model are established and adopted.The life cycle cost,annual/total revenue and profitability of an unmanned ship in her 20 years life span has been calculated by the present value method.The results show that the cost of an unmanned ship is significantly lower than that of a traditional cargo ship.At the same time,this paper makes a qualitative description and quantitative analysis of the risk of unmanned ships.The "net present value method" risk assessment results show that the NPV of the unmanned ship investment project is positive,which suggests that the investment can be made.The evaluation result by "real option method" shows that waiting for the right time to invest will bring more value to the project.Finally,this paper looks forward to the future changes in the shipping industry.The autonomous ships can achieve their commercial applications and commercial value,but the owners still need to make a critical assessment of the uncertain risk when making investment decisions.The cost-benefit analysis model and risk assessment method adopted in this thesis can be generally applied to the decision-making process for shipping companies,which has certain practical significance.